GOP targeting Pelosi in a third of House election commercials
Dems say usage shows party lacks issues, still building enthusiasm
WASHINGTON – Nancy Pelosi has long been a favorite target of GOP attack ads. But Republicans seem to be taking it to another level in this election cycle.
The House Democratic leader has been featured in roughly one-third (34 percent) of all GOP broadcast ads aired in U.S. House races so far this year, according to data provided to the USA TODAY Network by Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political advertising.
That compares to 9 percent in all of 2016 and 13 percent in 2014.
“Obama’s departure and the lack of a Clinton presidency has left Pelosi as the de facto stand-in as head of the Democratic Party” and shorthand to Republican voters for “liberal big government,” said Erika Franklin Fowler, a Wesleyan University political scientist who co-directs the Wesleyan Media Project, which analyzes broadcast advertising in federal elections.
The key example of the strategy so far this year was the hard-fought special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, where 58 percent of GOP spots mentioned the San Francisco Democrat, according to CMAG.
In last year’s special election in Georgia’s Sixth District (the most expensive US House race ever), 55 percent of Republican spots featured Pelosi.
The 2018 ad wars are still in their infancy, but “you’re going to see a lot of her,” said GOP pollster Gene Ulm of Public Opinion Strategies, calling Pelosi “the gift that keeps on giving.”
Democratic strategists point out that this approach failed to produce a victory March 13 in Pennsylvania, where Democratic winner Conor Lamb said he would not back Pelosi for leadership if he won.
“They chose to go this route mainly out of a lack of anything else to talk about,” Pelosi spokesman Drew Hamill said of the GOP strategy. “When you’re the party in charge and your president is in the White House, the midterms will be about the president and his party. There is no way around that. There is no historical correlation between who wins a midterm and who is the minority leader of the House of Representatives.”
Pelosi’s high negatives in national polls make her a handy target for the GOP: In a March poll conducted by NBC and The Wall Street Journal, 21 percent of Americans viewed her positively, 43 percent negatively. (Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan’s ratings were not quite as bad: 24 percent viewed him positively, 37 percent negatively).
“Pelosi is going to be front and center (for Republicans) until she doesn’t work anymore . ... They’re going to try to roll Nancy out for one more cycle and see if that is enough to scare enough (GOP) voters to come out in the midterms,” said Evan Tracey, a Republican media consultant, former head of CMAG and adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management.
Mobilizing the base is clearly a key goal for Republicans at a time when Democrats already are galvanized in their animus toward the Trump presidency. The fear of another Pelosi speakership is motivating to Republican voters for at least one very specific reason, said Ulm.
“There is not a Republican in the country that doesn’t realize a return of Nancy Pelosi also means a return to the investigations and potential impeachment of the president,” said Ulm.
Democratic pollster Celinda Lake said that was a strategy built on weakness.
“Every time I see a Nancy Pelosi ad (by Republicans) I think this is going to be a really, really good year for us,” said Lake, who said it means the GOP is having trouble running on issues and “having trouble with their base — they’re still fighting to (build) enthusiasm, which we are not.”