NFL, Jackson and a system undervaluing his best asset
The NFL draft’s first round is Thursday, meaning Lamar Jackson, Louisville’s high-flying 2016 Heisman Trophy winner, has less than one more week of battling an imperfect science guiding a slow-changing sport and the decisionmakers who run it.
He is not the first to do so, but Jackson might, in the end, be the most intriguing case study yet: What is the value of being a mobile quarterback in the NFL? And how much will Jackson be able to capitalize on that value?
As much as the game has changed, a comprehensive study of statistics and career earnings shows there is no connection between a quarterback’s rushing success in college and profitability in the NFL. There might be no skill in any other major sport valued so disparately from one level to the next. There might still be no other major sport with such a disconnect between the amateur and pro levels.
That is Jackson’s challenge: Can he be a star in a league that de-emphasizes his greatest skill?
“It’s a passing league, so you’ve got to be able to make plays from within the pocket,” said Chris Landry, a former pro scout and coach in the NFL and in college. “To be able to work the entire field, you’ve got to make plays, drop back in the pocket, survey the entire field and be able to get the ball out quickly.”
There is, as one might expect, a diminishing financial payoff to being a high-volume rusher.
The top 33% of rushing college quarterbacks drafted this century have combined to make about $1.08 billion in the NFL, according to the salary-tracking website Spotrac.com. The bottom 33% have made about $747 million in the NFL. The difference between the elite running quarterbacks and the bottom third, $305 million, is hardly significant when you consider Peyton Manning and Tom Brady made almost $446 million and would have fit into the bottom third.
Jackson’s running ability has caused two coaches to transform their offense around him. His new team is unlikely to be as interested in that skill. College teams build their offenses around a quarterback’s running ability. The NFL almost neutralizes it.
Rick Swain, Jackson’s coach at Boynton Beach (Fla.) High School, illustrated that division when he said, “You got the best athlete on the field, he needs to have the ball in his hands.”
The NFL tends to disagree. In that league, the athletes are better at every position. When a quarterback rolls from the pocket, a college coach sees a player who can cause problems for the defense in space. A pro coach sees one who limits the area of the field the team can use to attack the defense.
“I think it has to do with the coach’s background and how much appreciation they have for that style of play,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll told reporters at this year’s scouting combine. “Do they have any experience with it? Guys that haven’t had those guys, they would be more reluctant, maybe more hesitant. … You just have to embrace the dynamic of that player and what he can do and what he’s capable of doing and figure it out.”
An analysis of 17 years’ worth of data showed no statistically significant correlation between a rushing yardage or rushing average in college and likelihood of being drafted as a quarterback.
Of the major-conference quarterbacks this century, a player who was among the top third in career rushing yards was drafted 25% of the time. The middle third was drafted 19% of the time and the bottom third 21% of the time.
Meanwhile, this century, of the 15 players with the most career rushing yards among major-conference quarterbacks, three have been drafted as quarterbacks and seven have been drafted at other positions: running back, wide receiver or defensive back.
When he spoke at the scouting combine — his most recent interview session with reporters — amid rumors he would be asked to play wide receiver in the NFL, Jackson maintained that he was a quarterback. He repeated it like it was part of him since he was a child, because it was.
“Whoever likes me at quarterback, that’s where I’m going,” Jackson said. “That’s strictly my position.”
In Jackson’s high school years, Swain recalled a drive toward becoming a quarterback, whatever it took. Jackson would work on Sundays with a private trainer he had known since he was little. They would focus on the finer elements of being a passer that he might not have needed in college but will in the NFL.
“All the kudos goes to Lamar with the amount of effort,” Swain said. “I tried to get him to take a little bit of a break and play high school basketball, ’cause he was — ooh, you ought to see him play basketball. Oh my gosh.”
“Coach, I can’t do it,” Swain recalled Jackson saying. He had 7-on-7 workouts to run, throwing drills to finish, grades to maintain.
“That doesn’t fit into my plan.”