Just how good is Justify, Bob Baffert’s new star Kentucky Derby horse?

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – For all of Bob Baffert’s success during his 44 years as a trainer, the tough beats still haunt him.

None was tougher than the 2001 Kentucky Derby, when Point Given “a horse Baffert believed was unbeatable “went off as the 9-5 favorite but finished fifth.

Point Given proved his quality by winning the Preakness and Belmont later that year, but Baffert said he learned a lesson he’s never forgotten when it comes to the Run for the Roses.

“I really thought that’s the Triple Crown that got away from us,” said Baffert, who won it with American Pharoah in 2015. “That was the toughest one for me. We were so overconfident that day. It was a letdown. The buildup is so huge. The bigger the buildup, the letdown is pretty low.”

Given that history, Baffert isn’t ready to declare his new star “Justify “as the next Point Given or American Pharoah, though the undefeated 3-year-old can take a big step toward joining that group with a victory Saturday at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby.

A son of Scat Daddy, Justify is a relatively inexperienced colt with just three races to show, but he dominated each of them and earned the title of morning-line Derby favorite at 3-1 odds.

Is it possible Justify could be the sport’s next star?

“He’s always been a superior animal,” Baffert said. “When they’re that big and beautiful and then they can run and the way he’s bred, all the ingredients are there. Now we just need some racing luck.”

The argument over the quality of a particular Derby field is an annual rite of spring in Kentucky, but by all accounts this 2018 group appears to be deep.

The UAE Derby typically has been a toss-out when handicapping, but Mendelssohn sports a $3 million price tag and an 18 -length romp at Meydan in March and enters as the 5-1 second choice in the morning line.

Todd Pletcher has three of the key players in Arkansas Derby winner and undefeated Magnum Moon (6-1 odds), Florida Derby winner Audible (8-1) and Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso (12-1).

Add in Santa Anita Derby runner-up Bolt d’Oro (8-1) and 2-year-old champion and Blue Grass winner Good Magic (12-1), and many observers believe there are at least seven horses with very solid chances of winning Saturday.

“It’s good to be back with a horse that has a legitimate chance of winning,” Baffert said of Justify. “But there are six other horses that can pull it off if all goes well. It’s going to be a very competitive race.” But Justify enters as the one to beat. A son of Scat Daddy out of the Ghostzapper mare Stage Magic, Justify was purchased for $500,000 at the 2016 Keeneland September yearling sale by China Horse Club and Maverick Racing. WinStar Farm, Head of Plains Racing and Starlight Racing have since joined China Horse Club as co-owners.

Baffert said he heard of no problems with Justify when he joined his barn last December and was unsure why the colt didn’t race as a 2-year-old.

WinStar general manager David Hanley told Bloodhorse.com that Justify needed to grow into his large frame.

“He was a big horse, and as a 2-yearold we gave him a little bit of time,” Hanley said. “He has benefited from that time and has only matured into what he is as a 3year-old.”

Baffert said Justify’s first workout at Santa Anita on Jan. 29 “five furlongs in 1:01.20 “was an eye-opener.

“He just went around there and just did it effortlessly,” Baffert said. “And that’s when I knew he was really cut above the rest. Some of these other horses, they struggle through it. But he handled his first work really well.”

Justify won his first two races at Santa Anita by a combined 16 lengths “earning Beyer Speed Figures of 104 and 101 “before winning the Santa Anita Derby by 3 lengths over Bolt d’Oro. He received a 107 Beyer figure in that race, the fastest of any horse in the Kentucky Derby field.

Count Bolt d’Oro trainer Mick Ruis among the believers in Justify.

“I look at that horse train and look at that horse work, and it’s like, ‘Wow!”’ Ruis said. “I remember back when American Pharoah won before he was going to the Derby. I told my son, ‘I’ve never seen a horse move more fluidly than American Pharoah.’ And sure enough he went on to win the Triple Crown.

“You look at Justify, he is about as smooth as you want in a horse.”

Jockey Mike Smith said Justify “has that ‘it’ factor.”

“It’s a little bit of everything,” Smith said “He’s so athletic and has a brilliant mind to go with it. He’s eager to please, and you can turn him off and on. For such a big horse, he’s so light on his feet.

“What the rest of that ‘it’ factor is, no one really knows. No one can seem to tell you what the ‘it’ part is. It’s a whole lot of different things that come together that make them who they are.”

Justify will enter the Kentucky Derby with a long streak working against him and a short streak working for him. Apollo, in 1882, is the only horse to win the Derby without racing as a 2-year-old. But five straight post-time favorites have won the Derby, and Justify likely will have the chance to make it six in a row.

Elliott Walden, president of racing operations for WinStar Farm, said Justify has handled Churchill Downs well since arriving Monday.

“He looks like a man among boys out there,” Walden said. “He’s a big horse, extremely well-balanced. It’s just a question about his experience.”