Grizzlies
have failed to find (or keep) players of any impact in the draft.
Comparing that to other small-market teams, you’ll find that virtually every other success story has come on the back of effective first-round drafting. In Utah, it’s a team led by Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. In Oklahoma City, it’s Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams (and was Kevin Durant and James Harden, too). In Portland, it’s Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Anthony Davis. Giannis Antetokounmpo. The list is long. When you’re a small-market team, it’s imperative you draft well.
Grizzlies’ past draft misses
That brings us back to this year’s NBA draft on June 21, when Memphis will pick fourth. It’s the Grizzlies’ most important night in many years. It’s an exceedingly rare chance to add a special talent to a core hoping for two or three more years of contending.
Allow yourself to imagine what this team would have been like had it avoided taking Connecticut center Hasheem Thabeet with the second overall pick in 2009. Harden, Steph Curry, Tyreke Evans, Demar DeRozan. Pick one. Any of them would have improved the Grizzlies immeasurably. The big swing – and even bigger miss – on Thabeet was costly, even if the franchise scrambled to recover remarkably well. Seven consecutive years of playoff appearances and a trip to the Western Conference Finals isn’t bad.
In this regard, the Grizzlies are reminiscent of the early 2000s Detroit Pistons. Detroit won an NBA title in 2004 and had a core who made the playoffs eight straight seasons. However, a similarly huge swing – and miss – on Darko Milicic with the second overall pick in 2003 (coincidentally a pick that, but for a disastrous trade in 1997, would have belonged to the Grizzlies) eventually cost them. They’ve made the playoffs only once in the past nine seasons, and were swept that year by the Cavaliers in the first round.
The difference? The Pistons never again had a truly top pick. They never had a second chance to right the wrong. They picked several times in the back half of the top 10, but statistically, that’s not quite the same as picking fourth or better. Imagine how things might have been different had they added Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh or Dwyane Wade to their core. Unlike Detroit, the Grizzlies have a rare opportunity to right a wrong and add a foundational piece to their team.
But they’ve got to get the pick right this time.
Pick crucial for Grizzlies’ front office
It’s been an interesting mixed bag for the Grizzlies front office. They’ve done better than expected of late in the second round and with undrafted players. Dillon Brooks, Ivan Rabb, Andrew Harrison, Deyonta Davis and Wayne Selden are among those Memphis success stories. Most teams would be envious of results like that late in the draft. Grizzlies executive vice president of basketball operations John Hollinger summed it up rather neatly: “We’re just happy we’ve been able to find players in some other places to maybe make up for what we haven’t gotten in the first round the last few years.”
And, yes, in the first round, things indeed have not gone well. The Thabeet debacle has been well-chronicled. Add to him Xavier Henry, Tony Wroten, Jordan Adams, Greivis Vasquez and Wade Baldwin – all were taken in the first round by the Grizzlies over the last eight years, none are on the Grizzlies roster. Heck, only one is even playing NBA basketball these days. Vasquez was the lone member of that list to provide the Grizzlies with more than just token production before his departure.
In the world of investing, past performance is not indicative of future results. But what about a team’s success in the draft? For the Grizzlies, the answer needs to be yes – because the past is filled with poor picks, poor luck, and poor results.
There have been numerous changes in Grizzlies ownership and in their front office over the last decade. Michael Heisley sold the team to a group controlled by Robert Pera. Jason Levien and Stu Lash came and went, unceremoniously, as Joe Abadi arrived on the scene. Former Piston and Grizzly player Tayshaun Prince joined the Grizzlies front office. Ed Stefanski very recently left the Grizzlies to join – here they are again – the Pistons. People have come and gone. But the one constant amid the change has been Wallace, fortunes rising and falling, but never disappearing.
His first pick as GM came a week into his tenure, and it’s still the best one in franchise history – Conley. He went fourth overall. Perhaps it’s a positive sign for him that the Grizzlies will be picking fourth again this year.
The right pick will build a bridge between the Grit ‘n’ Grind Era to whatever success comes next. The wrong pick will represent yet another missed opportunity. Unorthodox path or not, this is another chance for the much-maligned but ever-present Wallace to get it right, a chance few GMs are afforded in an increasingly impatient NBA.