GOP forecast partly cloudy, partly sunny
I know a certain priest who used to refer to Memorial Day weekend as the Feast of the Evacuation. School is over, and families take trips, fueling the eternal debate between the mountains and the beach.
Meanwhile, Memphis settles into its familiar summer forecast: low in the mid-70’s, high in the mid-90’s, chance of afternoon thunder showers.
Forecasting the coming elections is not so simple. Yogi Berra put it this way: “It’s difficult to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Nevertheless, June is a month which begins to establish the political climate for the rest of this election year and gives us a basis for a longer-term forecast for Democrats and Republicans. The three most important numbers to watch are: presidential approval, consumer confidence, and right track/wrong direction.
Right now, presidential approval is registering about 44 percent approve, 52 percent disapprove, according to the RealClearPolitics average. That is better than it was earlier in the year and gives Republicans some hope that 2018 won’t be a complete disaster.
As of May, the consumer confidence index stands at 128.0 (1985=100), up from 125.6 in April. In 2010, a wave election year, the consumer confidence index dropped from 62.7 in May to 52.9 in June. It is hard to imagine a wave election with consumer confidence well over 100. When consumer confidence is rising, it signals fair weather for the party in power.
Pollsters also ask this key question: “Do you believe the country is mostly on the right track or is headed in the wrong direction?” It is a good measure of the mood of the country.
Currently the RealClearPolitics average is wrong direction +15. At this point in 2010, the number was wrong direction +26 and in 2014 (another midterm year) it was+25. With the right track/wrong direction response moving in a favorable direction, fair skies are possible for the Republicans.
All of these measures are indicators of voter reaction to the state of the economy and the state of the nation. With unemployment at 3.8 percent, (lower than it has been in decades),
GDP rising, wages rising, and help wanted signs abounding, the voters are likely to feel that the times are good and respond accordingly.
History plays a part, but has to be put in context. The party holding the presidency tends to lose seats in Congress in the midterm election. This is largely because the winning presidential candidate usually pulls in a number of congressional candidates of his party.
But in non-presidential years, when the presidential tide recedes, those members are left stranded on the beach. In 2016, very few congressmen were pulled into office on the strength of President Trump’s coattails. There was no surge, there is less room for the tide to recede.
Pollsters also measure the generic ballot question: “If the election were held today, would you vote for the Republican or Democrat for Congress?”
Currently, again according to the RealClearPolitics average, the Democrats hold a 3 percent advantage. This is significantly down from earlier this year, when it stood at more than 8 percent. There is a slight Democratic lean to the generic polling, which means that a 3.2 percent Democrat advantage in the generic ballot is likely to vanish on election day.
At this point, it looks like the socalled Blue Wave is losing its force. The trend lines are running in a Republican direction. By the end of June, we should know more, but the likely forecast is for a competitive year, with a chance of early morning twitter storms.
John Ryder is an attorney, with Harris Shelton in Memphis, who serves as Chairman of the Republican National Lawyers Association. He previously served as General Counsel to the Republican National Committee. He can be reached at ryderontheriver@gmail.com.