What endorsements can tell us
The candidates are sending you the voter a variety of signals. Endorsements are among those signals.
Last week was endorsement week in the Tennessee governors race. Randy Boyd announced an endorsement by Mike Huckabee, Bill Lee announced an endorsement by Mae Beavers, and Diane Black announced the endorsement of the NRA and Tennessee Right to Life. What is the point of endorsements? Endorsement are clues and cues to the voter about the nature of the candidate and that candidate’s positions. It is the rare politician whose endorsement can transfer votes to another candidate. Instead, candidates use the endorsement to help describe themselves to the voters.
The ultimate endorsement or signal is the nomination by a party. Voters take party as a major clue as what the candidate is all about. But in a primary, all the Republican candidates will tell you they are strong conservatives, so what are the signals the candidates are sending?
Boyd’s endorsement by Huckabee is a signal that he is open to support from the sort of social conservative evangelical that Huckabee represents.
Huckabee ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for president in 2008, but carried Tennessee. He ran again in 2016, but dropped out after the Iowa primary. His campaign manager was Chip Saltsman, who is now managing Boyd’s campaign. Huckabee enjoyed strong support from the evangelical community in both campaigns, which has been a base of Bill Lee’s campaign.
Bill Lee, meanwhile drew the endorsement of former state senator Mae Beavers, who announced for governor and then withdrew from the race to run for county executive in Wilson county. She was a Trump leader in 2016 and chaired the Republican delegation to the national convention. Her endorsement signals an appeal to the Trump wing of the party, which is part of the core of Diane Black’s support.
Black drew endorsements by organizations: NRA and Right to Life. These obviously signal commitment to the well known policy preferences of these organizations. In addition to the strong message these endorsements send, the organizations themselves will communicate their endorsements to their own members.
By gaining such an endorsement, Black adds the strength of these organizations to her own campaign organization. This week Black added the endorsement of HUD Secretary Ben Carson, who also ran in 2016 and also appeals to evangelicals.
Beth Harwell did not announce any major endorsements last week, but her website lists endorsements of the Tennessee Education Association and the Tennessee State Employees Association.
On the Democratic side, Craig Fitzhugh also was endorsed by the TEA, as well as the legislative Black Caucus, which shows that, despite his rural background, he is acceptable to inner city voters.
Karl Dean announced earlier that Martin O’Malley had endorsed him. At first glance, that seems largely irrelevant. O’Malley’s campaign for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016 never got off the ground. It ended before the Tennessee primaries and few voters here are aware of his existence.
But early in the campaign, it enabled Dean to position himself as not-Hillary and not-Sanders in a Democratic Party still fractured by the division between those two campaigns. Those signals run both ways: voters who are put off by the NRA or NARAL or trade unions will read the signal and decide that is not the candidate for them.
The signals will be coming fast and furious over the next few weeks. Brush up on your Morse code and interpret the dots and dashes.
John Ryder is a Memphis attorney who serves as Chairman of the Republican National Lawyers Association. He previously served as General Counsel to the Republican National Committee. He can be reached at ryderontheriver@gmail.com.