Strong Turkey helps US, Europe
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his supporters have cause to celebrate their latest election triumph. A large-scale political gambler, Erdogan has now been on a winning streak for years.
On June 24, Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) were victorious in the presidential election, but lost a parliamentary majority. Holding the elections at the same time was a gamble.
Two years ago, he dramatically and personally turned back an attempted military coup, using social media to urge the people of Turkey to resist. That showed courage as well as cleverness. Turkey has been in a declared state of emergency since. Police arrested citizens before the latest elections for publicly criticizing Erdogan.
In April 2017, a referendum gave expanded powers to the president. Erdogan and allies quickly declared victory after the voting, but the vote margin was narrow and there were accusations of irregularities.
Observers in other nations should be mindful of three basic Turkey realities.
First, in contrast to other Muslim states, Turkey has a history of involvement in both Europe and Central Asia.
In 2015, Turkey was president of the G-20. These nations account for approximately 85 percent of the world’s gross economic product. Beginning with the Atatürk revolution of the 1920's, Turkey has been viewed as a bridge between Islam and the West.
Second, since World War II Turkey has maintained good military security relations with most European nations and the United States, despite both the failure of the European Union (EU) to approve membership, and the disastrous U.S. invasion of Iraq. Turkey possesses strategic sea and land shipping routes, including the Bosphorus Strait that controls Black Sea access.
Third, Turkey represents a unique marriage of firmly rooted Muslim religious and cultural attitudes with Western-style governmental and social institutions and practices. This draws on the nation’s Ottoman history, which combined religious and firmly secular outlooks.
In "Lords of the Horizon -- A History of the Ottoman Empire," Jason Goodwin notes that he writes "about a people who do not exist. The word ‘Ottoman’ does not describe a place. Nobody nowadays speaks their language. Only a few professors can begin to understand their poetry... [Yet] For six hundred years the Ottoman empire swelled and declined."
Although the Industrial Revolution passed by Turkey, today that has changed. Over the past quarter century, Turkey’s economy has enjoyed reform and expansion. Growth was strong until recently, corruption and inflation were reduced, and government red tape and bottlenecks were steadily eliminated.
Much of the credit belongs to reform Prime Minister and President Turgut Özal, who held office from 1983 to 1993. He was a close friend of President George H.W. Bush.
While Turkey has had rocky relations with the EU, the NATO alliance has benefitted from the nation’s highly effective military.
In the Korean and First Gulf Wars, Turkey was a significant military coalition partner. In Korea, Turkey’s military reconfirmed once again their well-deserved reputation for combat effectiveness. In Afghanistan, Turkey has had top command responsibilities over the years.
Erdogan’s autocratic style presents a challenge, yet modernization remains important in Turkey. Opposition parties have gained in parliament. Current economic weakness provides political opportunity.
During the Cold War, Washington worked with unattractive governments for good practical reasons. Similar considerations apply today.
Turgut Özal along with George H.W. Bush deserves respect for mature leadership. Both represent impressive executive skill and personal integrity.
Ultimately, the Turkish people should determine their government.
Arthur I. Cyr is Clausen Distinguished Professor at Carthage College and author of “After the Cold War” (NYU Press and Macmillan/Palgrave). Contact acyr@carthage.edu.