Climate change threatens crisis readiness
Tennessee is more than just the home of country music and the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. It has a growing timber and agriculture industry and is home to nine of the world’s largest companies, including FedEx and AutoZone. Nashville was recently listed as the fourth top metropolitan area for economic strength, and Knoxville is climbing up the list as well.
The state also is home to some of our country’s vital military installations. Arnold Air Force Base houses the Arnold Engineering Development Complex, the largest flight simulation test facility in the U.S., contributing to the development of almost every top aerospace program. The Memphis Air National Guard Base supports the 164th Airlift Wing unit, which includes the C-17 Globemaster III, the most flexible cargo aircraft in America’s airlift force, capable of delivering troops and cargo to forward operating bases around the world.
Tennessee has clear national security and economic importance for the entire country. The military installations in the state provide critical support to national security missions, both within the U.S. and abroad, supporting refueling, airlift, flight simulation and other mission-essential capabilities. Beyond the presence of major corporations, the state is also listed as one of the top 10 states in low unemployment and growth in numbers of young people.
Unfortunately, the military installations and the vibrant, growing economy of Tennessee are threatened by the expanding threats of climate change. Although it usually is considered to have a temperate environment, the state has seen increasing temperatures and extremes in precipitation, both floods and droughts. The 2010 Nashville floods possibly provide a glimpse into the future for Tennesseans. The floods displaced more than 10,000 people and killed 26. In addition, there was more than $120 million in public infrastructure damage and more than 400 businesses closed in the city. Beyond floods, droughts and resulting wildfires will most likely become more frequent and intense as the planet warms. The wildfires in the Great Smoky Mountains in 2016 were the deadliest in the eastern U.S. since 1947, killing 14 people, injuring 134 and forcing 14,000 from their homes.
The potential for greater economic and national security impacts is growing. Downtown Memphis sits next to the Mississippi River, which is prone to flooding, particularly during times of extreme precipitation, almost anywhere along the river’s watershed. The Memphis Air National Guard Base, while not directly next to the river, is threatened, too. Employees and Guard members who live within the Memphis community could face challenges getting to the base if roads are flooded and infrastructure is affected. Furthermore, the economic consequences would be severe. Future floods or droughts similar to those of 2010 and 2016 could debilitate burgeoning city economies.
Additionally, increasing temperatures and droughts may have a negative impact on the state’s productivity and other aspects of security. Tennessee’s hydroelectric dams produce about 15 percent of the electricity for the state. During the 2007 drought, the plants produced 30 percent less than normal. In addition, higher temperatures will likely lead to increased evaporation from farmlands and affect agricultural sectors, including Tennessee’s vital corn and soybean crops. Droughts will also lead to increased risk of wildfires, which threaten both communities and military installations.
Even if fires don’t reach the facilities, smoke can affect operations, particularly military training exercises.
As climate change makes these events more likely, the state must continue to prepare for the inevitable changes. To maintain economic growth and protect critical national security operations, Tennessee will have to adapt. Planning for increased flooding, droughts and wildfires only benefits the state, bolstering community resiliency and national security against future disasters.
Lee Gunn is a retired U.S. Navy vice admiral who served for 35 years. He is a member of the Board of Directors of the American Security Project (www. AmericanSecurityProject.org) and a founding member of that organization.