Raptors gamble in Leonard deal
On one side, the San Antonio Spurs wanted as much as possible in return for All-Star Kawhi Leonard, who wanted out.
On the other side, teams interested in acquiring Leonard didn’t want to give up too much in a trade knowing that Leonard might not/likely won’t stay with his new team beyond the 2018-19 season when he can become a free agent a year from now.
It was a tricky and fragile dance, and the Spurs found the right partner in the Toronto Raptors, who sent All-Star guard DeMar DeRozan, promising young center Jakob Poeltl and a protected 2019 first-round draft pick to San Antonio for Leonard and shooting guard Danny Green.
It is a calculated gamble for the Raptors, who understand Leonard may just be a one-year rental.
It’s the same risk the Oklahoma City Thunder took with Paul George last summer. Prevailing thought had George leaving the Thunder in free agency this summer.
Instead, George remained with the Thunder, agreeing to a four-year, $137 million deal earlier this month.
That’s what the Raptors hope happens with Leonard. They convince him Toronto is the city and team for him and he stays. More on the long term in a minute.
In the short term, this makes the Toronto an even more formidable contender in the Eastern Conference. The Raptors have been knocking on the Eastern Conference championship door for a few seasons. LeBron James just always slammed the door shut.
In 2017-18, the Raptors had the best record (59-23) in the East but lost to James and Cleveland in the playoffs for the third consecutive season. It resulted in the dismissal of coach Dwane Casey.
The Raptors replaced Casey with longtime assistant Nick Nurse, and with Leonard’s offense and defense, they remain alongside Boston as the favorites to win the East. There’s no LeBron in Toronto’s way.
Toronto will have a strong starting five and a deep bench with a blend of veterans and young players: Leonard, Green, Kyle Lowry, OG Anunoby, Jonas Valancuinas, Serge Ibaka, C.J. Miles, Fred VanVleet, Norman Powell, Pascal Siakam and Delon Wright.
The Raptors were the only team last season to finish in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency, and Leonard will make Toronto better on both fronts.
While Leonard’s right quadriceps tendinopathy sidelined him for 73 games plus the playoffs last season, he is an All-Star and MVP-caliber player when healthy.
Toronto might not be Leonard’s preferred destination, but that shouldn’t matter. Leonard needs to prove he is the player he once was because his NBA future and payday are at stake.
If he wants to get that next big contract, he needs to have a great season with the Raptors. If Toronto convinces him to stay, great. It’s a great city and franchise, and there are worse teams for which to play. (There are whispers that it’s not a guarantee Leonard joins James and the Los Angeles Lakers a year from now.)
If he leaves, it will trigger a rebuild for the Raptors. That’s not the worst outcome for Toronto either.
Lowry, Valanciuinas and Ibaka will be entering the final seasons of their big-dollar contracts in 2019-20, and the Raptors will have cap space and multiple roster spots open in 2020-21.
It shouldn’t be a difficult rebuild either as long as Ujiri retains some of that young talent such as Siakam, Powell, VanVleet, Anunoby and Wright. Teams need to go through a rebuilding process sooner or later, and the Raptors will be prepared if it’s sooner.
Ujiri took a gamble with this trade. But it’s not a franchise-debilitating move if the deal doesn’t result in a longterm contract between Leonard and the Raptors. It just jumpstarts a rebuild that was coming within the next few seasons.