Worst-case scenarios for Grizzlies in 2018-19
Editor’s note: This is the second of a two-part series on the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Grizzlies’ upcoming season. Here are the worst-case scenarios.
Though it’s nice to dream, this Grizzlies season is probably not going to be all sunshine and lollipops. Owner Robert Pera has said he thinks the team can win 50 games, but the folks in Vegas are much more pessimistic, recently lowering the expected win total for the Grizzlies to 32.5. Having looked earlier this week at what would have to happen for the Grizzlies to have a best-case scenario season (and 50 wins would be very much that), it’s now time to examine the other side of the coin.
What if it gets really bad? What would a worst-case scenario season look like?
Grizzlies injuries return
This is the big one, and the one that’s tripped up the Grizzlies before. It just seems like, for a number of reasons, not all in the team’s control, the Grizzlies have been beset by key injuries year after year. Last year, it was Mike Conley. Before that, it was Marc Gasol. Chandler Parsons is constantly dealing with knee issues. Those are the three highest-paid players on the team. It’s disturbingly commonplace for the Grizzlies to lose key players for huge chunks of time.
Gasol’s return to form after what was a career-threatening broken navicular bone in his foot is inspiring and remarkable. No previous player of his age and size had done it. But Gasol will be 34 in January, and NBA big men do not typically age gracefully. He’s done an impressive job of remaking his body and cleaning up his diet, relying on more raw foods, including a healthy amount of vegetables he’s grown himself (gazpacho is a particular favorite of his). He’s leaner and fitter than he’s ever been. But in a worst-case scenario, none of that will prevent Father Time from rearing his ugly head and forcing Gasol out of action from time to time.
And what about Conley? While all the signs surrounding his return look good, nothing is certain until he returns and plays consistently for several weeks. And even excluding the 70 games missed last year with the heel/ankle problems, Conley missed 14 games in 2016-17 and 26 in 2015-16. It’s been five seasons since Conley missed fewer than 10 games. He’s certainly not old, but 31 isn’t young, either. If Conley’s out for any extended length of time, that’s going to trigger a worst-case scenario. Obviously no injury is welcome, but losing either Gasol or Conley doesn’t bear thinking about.
Not enough shooters
There are a lot of uncertainties
when it comes to the Grizzlies and making shots consistently. In a worst-case scenario, those uncertainties turn into pure negatives. What if, for example, MarShon Brooks’ production last season really was a product of late-season circumstance? What if Dillon Brooks or Wayne Selden can’t break the 35 percent mark from three? What if the Grizzlies have to rely too heavily on frontcourt players making threes because they can’t find consistency from their wings?
A worst-case Grizzlies team this year would be disjointed on offense and prone to big stretches of futility. Being unable to consistently threaten from deep would squeeze the spacing and slow the player movement the coaching staff wants to generate. If teams can sag off the Grizzlies’ shooters (think Golden State in 2015 versus Tony Allen but not quite to that degree), the flow of the offense will be stifled. The consequences of not being able to at least threaten from deep would be severe.
No one steps up
Much of the optimism about the Grizzlies season comes from the hope and expectation surrounding unproven players. Jaren Jackson Jr could be a Rookie of the Year candidate; Jevon Carter has serious defensive chops; Selden has barely scratched the surface of what he can do; Brooks should improve based on a strong rookie campaign; MarShon Brooks looked amazing in his cameo last year, and so on. Lots of possibility indeed — but it’s just possibility. In a worst-case season, none of those guys steps up and grows the way they’re expected to. The Grizzlies need Jackson to be productive right away; they need a young guard and wing to emerge from a crowded group. If there’s a collective mediocrity from the young players, that could set the stage for the worst-case to occur.
The West crushes them
The most troubling possibility is this one because it’s entirely out of the Grizzlies’ hands. The West is insanely deep this year. The Grizzlies could conceivably play extremely well and still win fewer than 40 games simply due to the incredible level of opposition they’ll deal with. That prospect also heightens the impact of the previous potential issues, as there is precious little margin for error.
The likelihood is that the Grizzlies will have neither a best-case nor a worst-case season. As ever, the truth is in the middle somewhere. Defining upper and lower limits is helpful, though, and the Grizzlies hope to end up closer to the upper than the lower.
Peter Edmiston covers the Grizzlies for The Commercial Appeal.