What Herenton’s mayoral re-run means
Willie Herenton, a former Memphis mayor running for his old job in 2019, put a biblical spin on his candidacy yesterday, calling himself a modern-day Nehemiah.
If you don’t know the Old Testament story, the story of Nehemiah takes place during Israel’s captivity to Persia. The Persian king’s Hebrew cup-bearer Nehemiah gets a commission from the king to rebuild the walls of Jerusalem. And because the “hand of God” was on him, he succeeded, confounding the nation’s enemies and fortifying the city against them and rekindling the people’s faith.
So, when Herenton says he wants to “rebuild the walls,” you can see where he’s going: He sees himself as a man on a divine mission, which is no surprise to long-time Memphis politics watchers. As mayor, he would often claim the divine right to rule.
But during next year’s October election, Herenton could come face-to-face with the new realities of Memphis politics. As shown in this year’s Shelby County election, Memphis voters are backing new ideas over old faces. The old days, when political dynasties like the Ford family held sway over the Memphis political scene, may very well be over.
The next generation of Democrats won a major victory when the old Shelby County Democratic Party was disbanded and reformed with younger, hungrier leadership. And it’s not at all certain this new wave of progressives will back the 78-year-old Herenton, who holds some, er, politically incorrect views — like that crime is a “black problem.”
Tami Sawyer, one of those younger progressives, said on Twitter that there was a “generational divide” on whether him running is a good idea, and said the older generation should be preparing a younger generation that has the potential.
But Herenton is popular with many Memphians, who fondly remember his tenure in office as historic for the black community and one of economic prosperity. But Mayor Jim Strickland, who will likely seek reelection, could make a good case that Herenton’s financial policies set Memphis up for a big fall during the 2008 recession, a crisis that led the next mayor, A C Wharton, to stop hiring police officers, creating the officer shortage Strickland has spent much of his time trying to reverse.
Sawyer estimates Herenton and Strickland will each get 25 percent of the vote, with other candidates getting less than 30 percent of the vote, leaving 20 percent to fight over.
Based on the reactions to yesterday’s news, Herenton will likely have a very high ‘unfavorable’ rating in upcoming polls — indicating the number of people who won’t vote for him, no matter what, is high. Even if Herenton has 25 percent automatically, winning votes beyond that will be an uphill climb. But that 25 percent is just big enough to ensure that no other candidate would have a chance of consolidating opposition to Strickland.
The takeaway from all of that: Strickland is in a very good position to win reelection — but not without a fight.
Here’s hoping Herenton won’t make the election about race this time, like in his unsuccessful “Just One” campaign in 2010, when he tried to unseat incumbent Democratic Congressman Steve Cohen. At a Strickland prayer breakfast in 2016, Herenton said this: “(When people say) we need a black mayor, I say, ‘No, we need a good mayor. I don’t care what the color of his skin is.’ ”
Reach Ryan Poe at poe@commercial appeal.com and on Twitter at @ryanpoe.