MSU welcomes back Mullen with a loss
Thanks to the Bulldogs of Mississippi State rolling over and playing dead at Kentucky last Saturday, plus 20-point plus favorites Alabama and LSU not playing to full snuff, last week’s SEC predictions turned out to be a mixed bag.
I was 7-1 straight up and 3-5 against the betting line, moving my record to 17-2 and 8-10 respectively for the season.
It’s time to jump in the deep end with SEC Week 5 predictions.
No. 19 Mississippi State -71⁄2 over Florida, Starkville, 5 p.m., ESPN
It took former Florida offensive coordinator Dan Mullen until his fifth season as Mississippi State’s head coach before he molded his Tim Tebow 2.0 quarterback, a perfect run-pass option operator named Dak Prescott. Mullen was fortunate to heist Louisiana native Prescott from LSU country because then-Tigers’ coach Les Miles was dumb enough to attempt to recruit Prescott as a tight end. Mullen won’t have as long as he enjoyed at MSU to develop a dependable QB in his new gig coaching at Florida, a school that has fired its last two head coaches after four and three seasons respectively. Current Gators’ starting QB Feleipe Franks has running skills nowhere near those of Prescott successor Nick Fitzgerald, whose pass accuracy needs to move the Starkvegas needle Saturday. Also, Florida is 13th in the SEC in rushing defense and State’s offensive line is still smoldering the way it was handled in last Saturday’s 28-7 loss at Kentucky. State clears the 200-yard rushing mark vs. the Gators, giving new coach Joe Moorhead his first SEC victory.
Prediction: The team Dan Mullen used to coach 31, the team Dan Mullen now coaches 17 No. 6 LSU -111⁄2 over Ole Miss, Baton Rouge, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Look at LSU’s lofty national ranking and you’d think this game should be a cut-and-dry win for the Tigers. But the way LSU’s work-in-progress offense has had extended dry spells, even against inferior non-conference opponents, there’s doubt about the Tigers if they are ever forced into an offensive shootout against a foe possessing quick-strike scoring ability. Enter Ole Miss. Its best attribute is scoring in blink via QB Jordan Ta’amu hookups with a trio of high-wire artists who have combined this season for 57 receptions for 933 yards and seven TDs. LSU’s cocky defensive backs have been known to give up deep balls. They may do so Saturday, but they respect Ole Miss’ wide receiver talent and will be dialed in.
Prediction: The team Ed Orgeron coaches 37, the team Ed Orgeron used to coach 17 No. 10 Auburn -27 over Southern Mississippi, Auburn, 3 p.m., SEC Network
Like those other Tigers down in the bayou, the Gus Malzahn-coached Tigers on the plains have been living off their defense in the first month of the season. Auburn currently has an uncharacteristic middle-of-the-pack SEC offense led by preseason all-league QB Jarrett Stidham. He's off to such a slow start that he's not ranked in the league’s top 10 in passing efficiency. Auburn is about to dive back into the meat of its SEC schedule, so the offensive inconsistency needs to end this weekend.
Prediction: Fightin’ Malzahns 45, Angry Birds from Hattiesburg 14 No. 1 Alabama -481⁄2 over
Everyone already knows the script to this mercy killing. Alabama starter Tua Tagovailoa throws for four TDs in the first 11⁄2 quarters, backup Jalen Hurts throws for one TD and runs for another, assorted Alabama running backs score a couple of times and the Tide defense gets a pick six. Then, with the Tide “only” ahead 63-0 with five minutes left to play, Alabama coach Nick Saban implodes because a third-string Tide cornerback allows UL-Lafayette a thirddown conversion completion.
Prediction: Crimson Sabanators 63, Fightin’ Hyphens of Looziana-Lafayette 0 No. 3 Georgia -311⁄2 over Tennessee, Athens, 2:30 p.m., CBS
Peter Burns of ESPN’s SEC Network, who spoke to the Jackson Touchdown Club a few days ago, gave me the perfect description of Tennessee’s program under first-year coach Jeremy Pruitt. “Tennessee football is this huge mansion that needs some updating,” Burns said, “so Pruitt is this contractor who’s coming in, ripping out the drywall, throwing the old siding in the front yard and it looks like a mess right now. He’s having to build that thing up from the foundation.” The immediate problem for Pruitt is the Vols having to play wrecking balls (Georgia, No. 10 Auburn, No. 1 Alabama) in the next three games.
Prediction: Athens Bull-doggies 51, Vols To The Wall 13 South Carolina +11⁄2 over No. 17 Kentucky, Lexington, 6:30 p.m., SEC Network
The boys in Vegas were impressed just enough by UK’s macho-man 21point beatdown of Mississippi State last week to make the Wildcats a slight home favorite. Kentucky deserved the win, but the Bulldogs jumpstarted it by stupidly getting sucked into Kentucky’s web of smacktalk. The resulting slew of unsportsmanlike conduct penalties put MSU behind the 8-ball too often. South Carolina won’t do the same and the Gamecocks have considerably better offensive balance than UK or MSU. The underdog wins.
Prediction: Dixie Chickens 30, Chatty ’Cats 28 Texas A&M -21 over Arkansas, Arlington, 11 a.m., ESPN
For the fifth consecutive season, the Aggies and the Razorbacks meet in the unofficial Jerry Jones Invitational. It's an SEC West division game played in AT&T Stadium, home of NFL’s Dallas Cowboys owned by the former Arkansas football lineman from the mid 1960s. Unfortunately for Jones, it hasn’t been a September to remember. The 1-3 Razorbacks are averaging just 25.5 points and the 1-2 Cowboys are managing an anemic 13.7. Meanwhile, A&M emptied one of its many bank vaults to hire Jimbo Fisher, the best coach that $75 million can buy.
Prediction: Fisher Kings 38, Pulled Pork 14 Vanderbilt (no line) over Tennessee State, Nashville, 3 p.m., SEC Network Alternate Channel
If ESPN’s fictional channel The Ocho was a reality, this game would qualify to be televised on that slice of sports freakdom along with competitive burping, wiener dog racing and seniors wheelchair slalom. The only reason Tennessee State booked this game is to save big on travel expenses. TSU’s campus is 2.7 miles from Vanderbilt’s campus, so rumor has it the entire TSU team is riding bicycles to Vandy’s stadium as part of the pregame warmup.
Prediction: Comical-dores “Who Cares?”, TS-Yoo “So What?”