Shelby County’s high turnout: What it means
Shelby County’s voter turnout Tuesday surpassed past midterm elections, and was about 50,000 votes shy of turnout in the 2016 presidential election.
“That reflects the fact that we had two statewide races that were perceived to be competitive,” said Michael Sances, assistant professor of political science at the University of Memphis. “It was an exciting year nationwide, but it was especially exciting in Tennessee.”
Shelby County was a spot of blue amid a red state, with the county casting 173,000 votes for Karl Dean and 105,000 votes for Bill Lee, who won the race for governor statewide. The county also cast roughly double the number of votes for Phil Bredesen than for Marsha Blackburn, who won the race for U.S. Senate.
Sances said the first thing voters were likely thinking of was the Senate race, their political party and how they feel about President Donald Trump.
“I think the fact that Shelby County didn’t vote so strongly for either of the winners is less a statement about the winners and what he’ll do for Shelby County and more about how people here feel about the president,” Sances said.
Linda Phillips, administrator of elections in Shelby County, said turnout in Germantown was nearly 70 percent, “stellar for Shelby County.”
People came out in particularly large numbers during early voting, she said.
“People vote when they care about what’s going on, be it a topic on a referendum, or a candidate and his/her position,” Phillips said. “I believe that was the case.”
Eric Groenendyk, associate professor of political science at the University of Memphis, said he thinks polarization has played a major role in voter turnout. As the political parties have become more distinct, people are becoming more engaged, he said.
“I think that definitely suggests that people are interested right now and engaged in politics across the country, but here maybe particularly,” Groenendyk said.
In Shelby County, 292,620 voters cast their vote either on Election
Day or by absentee ballot or early voting. That was 50.54 percent of registered voters.
In the 2016 presidential election, there were 341,731 ballots cast in Shelby County, 60.2 percent of registered voters.
In the November 2014 general election, which included races in Bartlett, Collierville, Germantown and Municipal, 185,528 ballots were cast in Shelby County, 34.3 percent of registered voters.
Sances said a better comparison is to the November 2010 election, when 229,536 ballots were cast in Shelby County, 38.1 percent of registered voters.
What the winners mean for Memphis, Shelby County
Both the Republican and Democratic party chairmen for Shelby County said they were impressed by voter turnout, but had different views on the implications of Tuesday’s results.
“It tells us that Donald Trump made the midterm election great again — that’s a joke, but that’s what it was about,” said Lee Mills, chairman of the Republican party of Shelby County.
Mills said he believes Lee will do a lot for West Tennessee, particularly since he has family in the area and made the region a major part of his campaign. Lee is interested in tackling education, recidivism rates and training for inmates, Mills said, all things that will have an impact on Shelby County.
“I think you’ll see good things for Memphis as far as Bill Lee is concerned,” Mills said.
Corey Strong, chairman of the Shelby County Democratic Party, said he’s concerned that Medicaid expansion, tackling poverty and bolstering public education aren’t concerns for either Lee or Blackburn.
“It means that Memphis and the issues of Memphians in Shelby County will not be a priority for our newly elected senator, which is status quo,” Strong said.
Strong said he thinks margins will continue to narrow between Republicans and Democrats, pointing to the race between Republican Brian Kelsey and Democratic newcomer Gabby Salinas.
In that race, Kelsey hung on to his District 31 state Senate seat with a vote margin of 51 percent to 49 percent.
Sances, the professor, also pointed to the Kelsey-Salinas race as an indication of possible change.
“The fact that she came so close suggests that Kelsey might not be so safe,” Sances said.
“Even though power’s not going to change hands, maybe it says some of these incumbents aren’t as safe as they thought.”