Midterms sort urban, rural, suburban voters
The election is over, and we can return to ads between competing brands of pickup trucks. Aren’t you glad that Ford and Chevy don’t run negative ads? Can you imagine an ad that says: Ford F 150 – wrong for Tennessee? Or Chevy Silverado – against our Tennessee values?
The anticipated “wave” didn’t reach the shore. There was no Blue Wave. Democrats’ distaste for Trump showed up as voter enthusiasm and displayed as The Resistance. Their performance during the Kavanaugh hearings shows the limits of resistance as a political strategy.
As in physics, every action creates an equal and opposite reaction. In this case, the Resistance generated Republican enthusiasm equal to that of the Democrats. The result was record turnout across the country and Republican gains in the Senate.
If Democrats, now in control of the House of Representatives continue the strategy of Resistance, they will contribute to the chances of President Trump’s re-election in 2020.
This election confirmed the Trump realignment, which itself was a continuation of the general trend of past decades – urban vs rural; small towns vs. big cities; heartland vs the coasts.
Democrats are the party of the upIn per and lower ends of the economic spectrum, with Republicans occupying the middle. That is not new. What is new is that both Democrats and Republicans are poaching each other’s voters, with Democrats picking off formerly Republican upper middleclass districts and Republicans picking up formerly Democrat rural and blue-collar districts.
The Trump coalition held together. The Kavanaugh Effect reminded mainstream Republicans of their reasons for voting for Trump. The Trump rallies reminded Trump voters of their reasons to vote Republican.
Limits to the Trump coalition were also apparent as the suburbs continued their drift away from the Republican Party. There is a clear rural/ urban divide in this country. Almost all of the rural congressional districts are held by Republicans and almost all of the urban district are held by Democrats.
The competitive Senate races took place in states with rural bases and favored Republicans. The competitive House races took place in suburban districts, which favored Democrats.
This can be seen in Tennessee, where Democrat Bob Freeman won the seat formerly held by Speaker of the House Beth Harwell in the affluent Belle Meade neighborhood of Nashville. Meanwhile, Republican Chris Hart won the seat vacated by former House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh in rural Lauderdale County.
Nashville things will be the same, but different. The overall numbers barely changed. The Democrats netted one seat in the state House, raising their total to 24 of 99. There was no change in the state Senate, where Republicans control 28-5. Republicans continue their super-majorities in both houses.
However, we have a new governor, Bill Lee, who is also new to government. The leadership of the General Assembly will also be new.
Former Senate Majority Leader Mark Norris is now a federal judge and former Senate Minority leader Lee Harris is now Shelby County Mayor. In the House, both the Speaker of the House Beth Harwell and House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh vacated their positions in order to run for governor.
In addition to the leadership changes in both houses, each house is looking at about one third new members. It will take a few months for everyone to get familiar with the process and with each other, as they all go through a period of adjustment.
That means that even without yard signs, robocalls, and negative ads, there will be politics. Such is the way of democracy. The people speak and their representatives act. Let us hope they act wisely.
John Ryder is an attorney with Harris Shelton in Memphis. He is former General Counsel to the Republican National Committee and is currently Chairman of the Republican National Lawyers Association.