How the Grizzlies can still convey their first-round pick

With just over two weeks remaining in the NBA regular season, the Grizzlies’ odds of conveying a top-eight protected first-round pick to the Boston Celtics this season are increasingly murky.

As the Grizzlies (29-43) prepare to host the Thunder at Fedexforum on Monday night, they sit sixth from the bottom of the NBA standings.

To reach ninth from the bottom of the NBA standings, history shows the Grizzlies need to win at least five of their final nine games and get some help from three teams ahead of them in the standings.

How the Grizzlies can convey

The Grizzlies entered Monday tied with the Mavericks, half a game behind the Wizards and one game behind the Pelicans in the full NBA standings.

Memphis will likely need to finish ahead of all three to en- ter May’s draft lottery in the favorable position of ninth from the bottom.

Here is one potential outcome for the remainder of the season that would allow the Grizzlies to finish in position to convey the pick: ❚ Grizzlies 5-4 (34-48) ❚ Mavericks 4-5 (33-49) ❚ Pelicans 2-5 (33-49) ❚ Wizards 3-5 (33-49) Finishing ninth from the bottom would be ideal for Memphis, because it would give the team roughly an 80

percent chance of finishing ninth in the draft lottery and conveying the pick, a 20 percent chance of selecting in the top four, and a zero percent chance of picking in positions 5-8 in a draft many analysts believe is lacking depth.

If the Grizzlies do not convey the topeight protected pick to Boston this season, they will be required to convey a top-six protected pick next year or an unprotected pick in 2021, as stipulated in the 2015 trade that brought Jeff Green to the Grizzlies.

Grizzlies general manager Chris Wallace said after the trade deadline that the franchise would prefer to convey the pick this season.

Improving chances at Zion Williamson

But if the Grizzlies cannot win enough games in the season’s final two and a half weeks to convey the pick, they will be hoping that the draft lottery goes in their favor.

If the season ended before Monday night’s game, the Grizzlies would have entered the draft lottery with an 8.3 percent chance of being awarded the first pick, which is expected to be Duke phenom Zion Williamson.

By contrast, if the team finishes ninth from the bottom of the NBA standings, its chances of selecting first overall would be just 4.5 percent.

Reach Grizzlies beat writer David Cobb at david.cobb@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @Davidwcobb.