Poll: Harris’ numbers rise in Iowa after debate
There are red flags for Biden and Sanders
The first Democratic debate has reshaped the presidential field in Iowa, bringing a surge of support for California Sen. Kamala Harris, undercutting the standing of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and raising questions about the solidity of former Vice President Joe Biden’s front-runner status.
In a new Suffolk University/usa TODAY Poll, Biden continues to lead the field, backed by 24% of those who say they are likely to attend the Democratic caucuses in Iowa that open the presidential contests next year. But Harris has jumped to second place, at 16%, leapfrogging over Sanders, whose support sagged to single digits. At 9%, he finished fourth, behind Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 13%.
The new standings are hardly set in stone. Six of 10 say they might change their mind before the caucuses; just one in four say their minds are firmly made up. The second set of debates, scheduled for the end of the month in Detroit, could upend the horserace again.
That said, the new survey has some sobering findings for Biden, a familiar figure in the state. His level of support didn’t change from the Des Moines Register/mediacom/cnn Iowa Poll taken last month. But among those who watched him debate, more than four in 10 said he did worse than they had expected. And among all of those surveyed, he was the second choice of just 11%, behind three of his rivals.
Harris, in contrast, saw her support more than double compared to the June poll, to 16% from 7%. She was also chosen as the second choice of 17% – a telling measure of the potential breadth of a candidate’s support. When first and second choices were combined, Biden only narrowly edged Harris, 35% to 33%.
The poll of 500 likely Democratic caucus-goers in Iowa, taken Friday through Monday, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
“To win in Iowa, you have to be able to woo the supporters of other candidates who drop out or that don’t reach the 15% threshold at the caucus,” said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk University’s Political Research Center. “The poll tells us that candidates like Harris, Warren, and (Pete) Buttigieg poll better than Biden and Sanders in this regard, and that sets the stage for a new face exceeding expectations in Iowa.”
For Sanders, who lost the 2016 Iowa caucuses to Hillary Clinton by less than a percentage point, the new poll also had warning flags. His support was seven points lower than in the Iowa Poll taken in June, when he had finished second to Biden. When first and second choices were combined, Sanders finished fifth — trailing Biden, Harris, and Warren by double digits, and Buttigieg by five points.
A national poll taken by CNN after the debate and released Monday showed some trends similar to those in Iowa. The Democratic race across the country had tightened and Biden’s lead over the field had shrunk to five points, to 22%. Support for Harris and Warren had significantly increased, to 17% and 15%, respectively. Sanders was fourth at 14%.
Susan Page USA TODAY