Breaking down Grizzlies’ final stretch of regular season
It was one thing when the Grizzlies drew praise for beating both the Hawks and Nets by 39 points last week. It was another when the Mavericks, a playoff contender, handed them a 17-point beating on Friday and that praise faded into reality.
The Grizzlies got back into the playoff race mostly beating teams with losing records starting in late December. If they want to stay there, they’ll have to beat more winning teams, something they haven’t done most of the season.
The good thing is entering Tuesday’s game against the Orlando Magic, the Grizzlies have a four-game cushion for the No. 8 seed. They also get reinforcements with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Justise Winslow set to return within the next week.
But what awaits the Grizzlies over their final 18 games is the league’s second toughest schedule. While a fivegame losing streak last month didn’t hurt them, a similar losing streak now could prove costly. Here’s what awaits the Grizzlies (32-32) over the next month.
Toughest challenges
First things first. 17 are against teams that would make the playoffs today or are fighting for the No. 8 seed in the
West. 11 of the Grizzlies’ 18 games are against teams at .500 or above, the most remaining for any team contending for the No. 8 spot.
Add that the Grizzlies have struggled against winning teams (8-20) and it gets even more difficult. That record is tied with the Suns for the second-fewest by any Western Conference team this season.
Now the actual games? Start with a final long road trip on Thursday to Portland, Utah and San Antonio. That’s two opponents fighting for the No. 8 seed, which are both must-wins, and the Jazz, who are 2-1 against the Grizzlies this season.
After facing the Bucks in Milwaukee on March 19, the month ends with five games in nine days. The Grizzlies start with the Pelicans on March 21 and 24, host the Celtics and end with a pair games against the defending champion Raptors.
April’s toughest games are a twogame road trip at Portland and Denver as well as hosting the Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers.
Schedule Comparison
While the Grizzlies have the hardest schedule of any team competing for the No. 8 seed, they also have the shortest
remaining road trips.
Both the Pelicans and Kings, who are four games behind the Grizzlies, each have two four-game trips left. The Suns and Trail Blazers each have six-game road trips on their schedule while the Spurs have a five-game trip.
The Suns’ trip, which begins March 23, should eliminate them from the race after facing four winning teams. Despite the Trail Blazers’ six-game trip, they host nearly all their toughest opponents left on the season, including two games against the Grizzlies. That’s before mentioning they’ll get center Jusuf Nurkic back Sunday after he suffered a broken tibia and fibula a year ago.
The Kings still face the Lakers twice, the Clippers and the Rockets.
The Spurs have two games remaining each against the Nuggets, Jazz and Rockets and face six of their final eight
opponents at home.
As for the Pelicans, they remain a threat because they have a 2-0 series lead against the Grizzlies. Of their final 18 games, they only face three teams above .500.
It’s why the Grizzlies don’t have much room to fail. The five teams behind them haven’t gained any ground since the Allstar break yet they could take advantage of the Grizzlies’ treacherous road.
Expectations
So what can the Grizzlies reasonably do? They enter Tuesday one game shy of matching last season’s win total, which is another accomplishment in a season of overachievement.
If they go .500 to end the season and win nine games, that’s more than enough to secure a playoff bid with the teams behind them losing enough games to help. Even winning 7-8 games would probably guarantee them a trip to Los Angeles to likely face the No. 1 seed Lakers.
They need to win at least one game at Portland, preferably this week before Nurkic’s return.
They must beat the Spurs on Monday and split their two games against the Pelicans, who beat them convincingly in their first two meetings. Another mustwin comes hosting the Knicks on April 1, their lone opponent outside of the playoff race.
The Grizzlies matched up well against the Thunder in their first two meetings in Oklahoma City and should’ve won both games if not for giving back a 24-point deficit on Dec. 18. That gives them a good chance to win both games at home on March 17 and April 11.
That’s at least six winnable games after Tuesday against Orlando and should they win both against Portland and New Orleans, that number jumps to eight.
It’s not impossible but if the Grizzlies survive this gauntlet, they’ll have earned the playoff spot that few thought was in their reach when the season began.
Jaime Echenique, Sr., C, Wichita State
James Bouknight, Fr., G, Uconn
Kendric Davis, So., G, SMU
Tyson Jolly, Jr., G, SMU
Isiaha Mike, Jr., F, SMU
Brandon Rachal, Jr., G, Tulsa
James Bouknight, G, Uconn*
Caleb Mills, G, Houston*
Marcus Sasser, G, Houston
Precious Achiuwa, F, Memphis*