Kentucky or the field? That’s not an easy call
Will Kentucky basketball regain the SEC tournament title, or does parity point to the Wildcats losing for a second straight year?
There are reasonable arguments on both sides, as the SEC tournament tips off with first-round games Wednesday at Bridgestone Arena. Here are the reasons why Kentucky or the field of the other 13 SEC teams should be favored to win the tournament title:
Kentucky: Recent history is on its side
No. 1 seed Kentucky has owned the SEC tournament in recent years, especially at Bridgestone Arena. The Wildcats have won three of the past four SEC tournament titles in Nashville. And they have won five of the eight SEC tournaments held at Bridgestone Arena, beginning with a 2001 crown.
Field: Auburn is the defending champion
Kentucky isn’t invincible, and the most recent SEC tournament showed that. Auburn won the SEC tournament title here last season, when Kentucky was eliminated by Tennessee in the semifinals. Granted, Auburn lost its best three players from last season’s title team. But coach Bruce Pearl still has a good mix of veterans and talented freshmen such as projected firstround NBA Draft pick Isaac Okoro.
Kentucky: Blue Mist makes Bridgestone Arena a home court
Kentucky fans take over Bridgestone Arena every year. Some come down Interstate 65 or I-24, while others are more local. Rupp Arena has constant sellouts, so some Wildcats fans attend the SEC tournament because they can’t see their team at many home games. It gives Kentucky a home-court advantage the other 13 teams don’t enjoy, except maybe Tennessee.
Does that make a difference? Consider that Kentucky had an 80-3 record at Rupp Arena in the five seasons it won the SEC tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Its home-court advantage simply moved to Nashville for a week. This season the Wildcats were 16-2 at home.
Field: Other contenders are on Kentucky’s heels
Kenpom.com, a college basketball analysis website, gives Kentucky a 22% chance of winning the tournament. That’s the best odds of the field, with No. 2 Auburn (20.3%), No. 3 LSU (17.1%), No. 5 Florida (12.4%) and No. 4 Mississippi State (10.8%) trailing. But that still gives the field almost an 80% chance of knocking the Wildcats out of the bracket.
Kentucky: The Wildcats have more talent, period.
There’s a reason Kentucky usually enters the SEC tournament as the favorite and often wins it. The Wildcats are loaded with Nba-bound talent. This is not one of John Calipari’s best teams, but it’s still very good. No other SEC team can roll out a starting five like Tyrese Maxey, Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley, Nick Richards and E.J. Montgomery. They were fivestar prospects and tout NBA futures.
Hagans carries an asterisk. He took a leave of absence from the team last week, but Calipari said he expects him to return for the SEC tournament.
Field: Tough matchups are in Kentucky’s way
Kentucky plays the Tennessee-alabama winner in Wednesday’s quarterfinals. If it wins, it will play Mississippi State or potentially Florida in the semifinals. In their last two regularseason games, the Wildcats lost to the Vols 81-73 and pulled out a 71-70 win over Florida.
Kentucky also lost to South Carolina and Auburn earlier in the season. It could face either of those in the championship game, if it got that far.
Kentucky: Wildcats know how to win under pressure
SEC tournament games can get tense, especially in the later rounds. Kentucky knows how to win such games. It has a 15-6 record in games decided by single-digit margins this season, including a 12-3 mark in the SEC. One big factor is that the Wildcats are shooting 79.7% from the freethrow line, ranked No. 2 among 350 Division I teams entering Monday.
Reach Adam Sparks at asparks@tennessean.com and on Twitter @Adamsparks.