Why Volunteers can win SEC title (and why they can’t)

Tennessee basketball hasn’t won the SEC Tournament since 1979.

So to reach the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season, the Vols only have to do something they have not done in four decades.

Here are three reasons the Vols can win the SEC Tournament and also three reasons they cannot:

Three reasons why

John Fulkerson

Fulkerson has been one of the best players in the SEC for the past month. He is averaging 18.3 points per game in his past 10 games and is likely to be named to the ALL-SEC teams Tuesday.

The junior forward is Tennessee’s best chance to make a push through the SEC Tournament. He has a favorable matchup against Alabama; he scored a then-career-high 22 points on Feb. 4 in Tuscaloosa. The No. 8 seed Vols (17-14) play the No. 9 seed Crimson Tide (16-15) on Thursday (1 p.m. ET, SEC Network).

Fulkerson also has proved to be a pain for Kentucky, which awaits Friday as the No. 1 seed.

Defense

Coach Rick Barnes was concise Monday in his view of Tennessee’s defense.

“I think we have a good team defense when everybody is doing their job,” he said.

If the Vols get everyone playing well defensively, they could rally through the tournament after a rough defensive game against Auburn on Saturday.

UT leads the SEC in points per game allowed with 64.2 and blocks a leaguebest 5.6 shots per game – looking at you, Yves Pons. Tennessee also is third in the SEC in field-goal defense at 40.2%. A defense like that can carry a team in the postseason, especially with heavy legs and quick turnarounds.

The game-changing freshman Tennessee was its best version of itself in the past few weeks in the first half against Florida and the second half at Kentucky, then its worst version against Auburn.

The common theme? Josiah-jordan James played his best halves of the season in the former. He was aggressive against Florida, then completely controlled the game at Kentucky as UT came back to win. Then he was a noshow against Auburn.

“I was surprised as anybody because you felt like he had finally turned the corner and started to get into a flow,” said Barnes, who added “there wasn’t anybody on the floor any better than him at Kentucky.”

The freshman has been inconsistent this season while battling a groin injury. But when he is setting the pace, Tennessee is a different team. That was visible in Tennessee’s final three regular-season games.

Three reasons why not

Depth

Tennessee has grown increasingly reliant upon its starters in the past five games but will need its bench to win in

Nashville.

“We have to play them,” Barnes said. “I just know we need those guys going forward. I hope they can understand the value of accepting a role they play.”

UT’S bench has played only 15.7% of available minutes – an average of barely 31 minutes of 200 possible minutes per game – in the past five outings.

Barnes has a slight trust level in guards Davonte Gaines and Jalen Johnson, who have averaged 10.6 and 14 minutes per game, respectively, in the past five games. And Gaines’ minutes have plummeted in the past three. Olivier Nkamhoua and Uros Plavsic have shrunk into non-factors.

None of that is a recipe for success in a tournament when you have to win four games in four days to claim the title. The draw

And that consecutive days situation leads to this point: The Vols would face Kentucky in the quarterfinals less than 24 hours after playing Alabama, if they win.

Kentucky has a double-bye and will enter Friday having not played since Saturday.

Tennessee did just beat Kentucky in its most impressive outing of the season — a 17-point comeback win at Rupp Arena. But facing a team with the backcourt ability that Kentucky has the day after facing a team with the guards that Alabama has is not a draw built for a long tournament run.

Baffling Vols

Barnes described the Vols as “baffling” a couple of times Monday. Tennessee took big steps forward in January, then slumped in February. It took strides again late in the season, then flopped against Auburn.

“Where we are right now, it is hard for me to say,” Barnes said. “I felt before the game that we had improved a lot. I know we have, but (it’s) so baffling we can revert back to the mentality we had.”

Barnes believes the Vols can beat anyone in the SEC, and he’s probably right. But which Tennessee team will show up in Nashville?

It better be the one that had the brilliant week against Florida and Kentucky or the Vols are staring at a short trip to Nashville.

BRIANNA PACIORKA/NEWS SENTINEL Tennessee guard Josiah-jordan James (5) reacts to a foul called against the Volunteers during a basketball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Auburn Tigers at Thompson-boling Arena in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday.