Memphis could have 400K infected
Data says social distancing, stay-at-home must be followed
If Memphis metropolitan area residents don’t take social distancing seriously and don’t stop going to work, more than 8,000 people could die and more than 400,000 people could be infected, according to data presented to local leaders.
That’s the worst-case scenario, according to a presentation given to local health officials and leaders by Dr. Manoj Jain, the infectious diseases expert advising Memphis, and Dr. Alisa Haushalter, the Shelby County Health Department director. The presentation, obtained by The Commercial Appeal, is dated Monday, March 23.
The presentation details three infection rate scenarios — low, middle and high. Each of the scenarios corresponds to the level and efficacy of social-distancing measures put in place.
❚ The high estimate puts the number of people infected in the Memphis metro area at 405,186, ICU admissions at 40,519 and deaths at 8,104.
❚ The middle estimate puts infections at 189,087, ICU admissions at 9,454 and deaths at 1,891.
❚ The low estimate has infections at
13,506, ICU admissions at 338 and deaths at 68.
The high and moderate scenarios would likely overwhelm the area’s healthcare system. The data and the presentation informed Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland’s decision to issue his “Safer at Home” executive order, scheduled to take effect at 6 p.m. Tuesday. Other municipalities quickly followed.
The data was first disclosed by Church Health CEO Scott Morris in a radio interview Tuesday morning.
“I’m looking at a model projection right now about what would happen in Memphis ... The potential of the number of people who would die just in the moderate range ... over the next three months would be 1,891 people,” Morris said in an interview on The Geoff Calkins Show. “There would be 18,909 hospitalizations and 10,000 people admitted to the intensive care unit. How is that a problem? Because our healthcare system can’t possibly care for that many people.”
Morris said the shelter-at-home measures are not overkill.
“Nobody is going to care about Memphis but people who call Memphis their home. The federal government is not coming to our rescue. I don’t think the state has the ability to come to our rescue. This is about us taking care of our own, and who we are,” he said. “This can’t just be about people who look like you. This has to be about everybody who lives and works and plays and goes to church and calls this our community.”
Morris said that if nothing changes, the path is bleak, but that taking serious precautionary measures can change those projections.
“I am looking at a modeling picture right now that says we can stop this thing in its tracks,” he said. “There is a path out there that nobody dies.”
After presentation, Strickland issues order
On Monday, Strickland announced a shelter-in-place order, directing people who do not perform essential services to stay home. The order is in effect for two weeks and could be extended.
Suburban municipalities followed Memphis and announced “Safer at Home” initiatives Monday. Shelby County Mayor Lee Harris said Monday a similar order would come from the county and that announcements were expected from Millington, Arlington, Lakeland and the Shelby County Health Department by Tuesday evening.
Announcing the order, Strickland said the city was facing unprecedented circumstances.
“We can choose the path of doing nothing and have rampant infection throughout our city, causing health care providers to ration life-saving medical equipment ... or we can choose to take this situation seriously, and slow the spread of the virus. We are choosing to take this seriously,” he said.
The orders from Memphis and other Shelby County municipalities bar nonessential businesses from operating.
Essential services such as walk-in health services, hospitals, grocery stores, gas stations, pharmacies and restaurants serving to-go items only.
Monday’s orders continued a steady progression of social-distancing measures mandated by local governments over the past week. Strickland declared a civil emergency Thursday, giving him powers to impose a curfew and shelterin-place, though no curfew has been imposed.
Martin Croce, chief medical officer at Regional One Health, said Monday that the measures were not a punishment to the community.
“This is a serious illness. This is a serious disease,” he said. “It’s imperative that we follow these sorts of guidelines in order to reduce the spread of this disease.”
Infection, mortality rates
According to Jain’s presentation, for every COVID-19 case, between 1.4 and 6.6 other individuals catch the virus and up to 3% of people with the virus die. For comparison, the seasonal flu sees one additional person infected for every case and has a mortality rate of .5%.
During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic, on average, each case led to 2.5 additional infections and about 2% of people who were infected died. Jain’s presentation showed responses to the 1918 pandemic in Philadelphia and St. Louis and indicated that the more rapid implementation of social distancing policies in St. Louis led to a slower spread of the virus and a lower mortality rate.
Those social distancing policies and the “Safer at Home” directive — which officials say are needed to avoid the worst-case scenario — including people in non-essential industries only leaving home for certain activities, including medical and veterinary appointments, going to the grocery store or pharmacy or exercising outside. When doing any activities, people need to remain six feet away from others and wash their hands as soon as they return home.
While the COVID-19 virus is particularly dangerous for people over 60 and those with underlying medical conditions or compromised immune systems, the young are not immune, Morris said. For shelter at home and social distancing policies to be effective, people of all age groups need to comply.
“We can choose the path of doing nothing and have rampant infection throughout our city, causing health care providers to ration life-saving medical equipment ... or we can choose to take this situation seriously, and slow the spread of the virus. We are choosing to take this seriously.”
Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland