Virus’ spread near Shelby ‘concerning’ to officials
Just over two weeks have passed since most Tennessee counties were allowed to reopen ahead of counties with major metropolitan areas. And, while Shelby County’s health department has the independence from the state health department to guide Memphis towards a full reopening of the economy, the reproductive rate of the novel coronavirus in surrounding counties still factors into Shelby County’s next steps.
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee let the statewide “Safer at Home” order expire on April 30, which paved the way for 89 counties to reopen most businesses. Many businesses in the state were allowed to operate as early as April 27.
Two of those counties, Fayette and Tipton, border Shelby County. And, since infectious diseases are not known to respect county borders, the viral reproductive rates in those areas demand attention from Memphis and Shelby County officials.
“The surrounding counties, as well as the state of Mississippi, have higher reproduction rates than we do, and that is concerning to us. That means that there’s active transmission within their communities.”
The reproduction rate, sometimes referred to as the transmission rate, of a virus is a measure of its transmission, or the number of new infections generated by each case. A reproductive rate of 1, for example, means on average each infected person will infect one other person they come in contact with.
During the Tuesday joint COVID-19 task force briefing, Shelby County Health Department Director Alisa Haushalter indicated her concern about the transmission rate in neighboring counties.
“The surrounding counties, as well as the state of Mississippi, have higher reproduction rates than we do, and that is concerning to us,” Haushalter said. “That means that there’s active transmission within their communities.”
Currently, Shelby County has a transmission rate of 1.14, a number that Haushalter called “significant.” The county health department would, ideally, like to see that number come down to 1, or lower than one, she said.
But while Shelby County continues to pursue a reproductive rate of 1 or lower through social distancing measures, the county health department has to consider the transmission rates of not only Fayette and Tipton County, but of Crittenden County in Arkansas and Desoto County in Mississippi.
Two of those counties — Desoto County, Mississippi, and Crittenden County, Arkansas have lower reproductive rates of the virus — 1.02 and 1.08, respectively. The data informing
“As we do contact tracing, we look for ... connections between our cases and other county cases.”
Alisa Haushalter Shelby County Health Department Director
those numbers was compiled by Covid Act Now, a multidisciplinary organization that has partnered with Georgetown University and Stanford University’s Clinical Excellence Research Center.
But Tipton County currently has a transmission rate of 1.28, according to Covid Act Now, which indicates that Tipton County is currently battling a higher rate of spread. Fayette County’s reproductive rate is slightly lower, at 1.22.
The reproductive rate isn’t the only trend in neighboring counties that Memphis and Shelby County health officials must watch, Hasuhalter said. They must also consider how COVID-19 is traveling.
“As we do contact tracing, we look for if there are connections between our cases and other county cases,” Haushalter said. “For example, we have people that may live in Arkansas but work in Shelby County, so we know there’s linkages between here and Arkansas, and that’s what we’ll be looking at.”
Micaela A. Watts is a breaking news reporter for The Commercial Appeal and welcomes tips of all kinds in her inbox at micaela.watts@commercialappeal.com.