Why stolen election in Belarus matters
For the past three decades, the Vegas rule largely applied to Belarus: What happened there tended to stay there.
That is a result of a closed-off economy with a neosocialist system and even a KGB to monitor its citizens. Little news of its atrocious human rights record seeped out. The impoverished country has been ruled since the breakup of the Soviet Union by Alexander Lukashenko, a strongman in the Soviet sense of the term – uninspiring, gruff, yet a survivalist. Think Brezhnev, but with a creepier mustache.
I crossed into Belarus from Lithuania on an overnight bus in March 2006 to monitor its presidential elections. This was one of the first elections where the use of SMS technology was employed tactically to get people onto the streets. There were widespread reports of fraud, and thousands of Belarusians packed Minsk's main square to protest, braving subzero weather and snow.
I remember thinking that this might be the end for “Europe's last dictator.”
What happened next will have a familiar ring: Once the international news media fled the scene, Lukashenko promptly sent riot police to rough up and arrest the protesters. The crowds thinned out, and his regime survived yet another challenge to its authority.
In the years since, Belarus has tried to stay out of the limelight, by at times playing Europe off Russia – a balancing act that has won Lukashenko the ire of both. His relationship with Vladimir Putin has chilled in recent years as Belarus balked at joining a formal union with Russia.
But Belarus matters to America. Beyond the humanitarian tragedy unfolding, thousands of protesters, including women and children, continue to lock arms in protest of what was a rigged election.
First, Belarus is an important buffer state between NATO and Russia. Any conventional war on the Eurasian landmass would involve its territory, which is why Russia carries out military exercises there.
Second, Belarus is ripe for a new, more representative government to replace the current regime. It is a stain on the European experiment that a Sovietstyle dictatorship sits on its doorstep, thumbing its nose at Europe's liberal ideas.
To be sure, Belarus is enjoying greater company as European Union members like Poland and Hungary succumb to Lukashenko-like populism. Reversing this trend would benefit the EU experiment as a whole and provide a stronger buffer against Russia.
Finally, the Vegas rule of Belarus is long gone. Just as Lukashenko denied the presence of COVID-19 in his country, holding hockey games and concerts with little thought or care whether anybody wore masks, what happens elsewhere trickles into Belarus and what happens in Belarus does not stay contained there.
I remember the throngs of protesters who crammed into October Square in downtown Minsk in 2006, chanting slogans of “Long. Live. Belarus!” It was an inspiring moment.
At the time, I remember being dismayed by the lack of organization. Little did I realize how dangerous and difficult it was to organize such disparate strands of an opposition movement in the days before social media.
It's not clear that Facebook or Twitter would have brought about Lukashenko's downfall. The Belarusian writer Evgeny Morozov famously marveled at the naivety and inability of cyberutopians to predict how autocrats like Lukashenko would turn the internet's search engines on their head to surveil their people and prevent grassroots mobilization. His was an outlier view a decade ago; now it's mainstream.
I remember the cat-and-mouse game protesters played with the authorities in 2006 as fake leaflets and flyers were handed out telling protesters to report to various squares, where riot police awaited to arrest them. I also remember the plainclothes KGB planted out front of my apartment, monitoring my every move.
I was shocked yet proud that the world was paying attention to this pocket of Europe, but it has largely ignored Belarus since.
The United Nations, EU and U.S. government should speak up in unison about the country's atrocious human rights record. It should also support the pro-democracy opposition there more proactively.
The main opposition candidate, a 37year-old housewife named Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, was forced to flee, fearing for the safety of her family. She joined the race after her husband was detained and prevented from running as a candidate.
It is high time to send in international election observers to declare the vote illegitimate and to hold Lukashenko accountable to his people.
Belarus' more than 9 millions citizens deserve better. What happens in Belarus no longer stays in Belarus.
Lionel Beehner, a member of USA TODAY’S Board of Contributors, is an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.