Advocates for Memphis-shelby consolidation see hope in poll
Shelby County and Memphis voters would support a consolidated metropolitan government if they were convinced doing so would grow the economy, decrease taxes, increase federal government spending and maintain public services.
That’s according to two separate polls, one that surveyed 300 Memphis voters and 300 voters from all suburban Shelby County municipalities, showed more than 50 percent of voters favored the idea after they received information about it.
In Memphis, 76% were in favor, with 10% against and 14% undecided. In Shelby County, 60% were in favor, 25% against and 15% undecided.
However, that support hinges on a key caveat: Voters were far more open to the idea of consolidation after Conquest Communications Group, the Virginia firm that conducted the poll, asked, “Assuming it is proven to you that a metro government could provide better job opportunities, more state and federal resources and lower taxes, are you more likely to support a new, metro government, or more likely to oppose it?”
Before voters were given any information and just asked how they would vote if a referendum were held today, Shelby County voters were more against consolidation than they were for it — 30% for, 53% against and 17% undecided. That shows the suburban reluctance that defeated an election on the matter in 2010 still exists just, perhaps, not to the same degree. In the pre-information phase of the poll, Memphis voters approved of it by a 49% to 22% margin with the remainder undecided.
The themes of more federal spending and job growth while maintaining municipal boundaries and public services could be the potential planks in a pro-consolidation platform if a campaign were mounted for a public vote in 2022.
Some of those involved with funding the polling effort, Memphis City Councilman Chase Carlisle and Brian Stephens, a principal at Caissa Public Strategy, found the data encouraging and that it shows support for exploring the idea, but not a concerted consolidation campaign, at least not quite yet.
“This does not mean they’re going to vote for [it] today. But this means they’re open to the concept and, and are willing to explore the concept and that’s as far as I am too,” Stephens said in an interview Wednesday. “The issue is, do we want to try to explore ways to increase our economic development engine; to get more of our fair share from city and county government from federal and state governments? Or do we not?”
Carlisle said, “We wanted to know if forming a metropolitan government
was something that the people of Memphis and Shelby County would be open to … not necessarily for or against, but open to. What we found in our poll was that a majority of people are very open to the idea; more so than ever before.”
Stephens and Carlisle are the only two members of those funding the poll who have gone public with their interest and they declined to name their fellow funders.
They both support the idea of consolidation and have framed it in economic terms — a chance to reverse the stagnant population and slow economic growth Shelby County has seen for the last two decades.
The cover sheet for the poll's results encapsulates the group's intention with conducting the survey. It describes the group as “A number of Memphis and Shelby County political leaders and business executives looking at the long term economic growth and success of the Memphis region believe that 1) a public/private initiative to chart the future course of the city and county and 2) an effective and efficient government is a path forward to create a more vibrant Memphis region.”
‘I have to know who’s behind this’
Other community and business leaders not involved with polling effort greeted the idea of consolidation with interest and look at the polling data with some skepticism.
Tajuan Stout Mitchell, a former Memphis City Councilwoman and member of the previous two Memphis mayoral administrations before Memphis Mayor Jim Strickland, expressed interest in knowing, beyond Carlisle and Stephens, who is funding the polling effort.
“I may be for consolidation. But I'm not going into it blindly. I have to know who's behind this, what the motivations are, and what you're proposing. And the only way you can really do that is to put a plan together and let citizens talk about it,” Stout Mitchell said.
She noted how the aftermath of Memphis City Schools giving up its charter and merging with Shelby County Schools and how she believes that decision was a mistake.
Of a metropolitan council form of government, she said, “It could be good. But then it depends on how the lines are drawn. And it depends on if there is fair representation.”
Darrell Cobbins, a commercial real estate broker and president of 100 Black Men of Memphis and who was heavily involved in the 2010 referendum campaign, still believes consolidation is a good idea and found the polling data shared with him by The CA encouraging.
“I'm actually happy and encouraged to see that ... change of mind has occurred because 10 years ago, I ... was of the mindset that it might take a whole generation for that to change. And lo and behold, here we are, 10 years later, there's [a difference],” Cobbins said.
Cobbins, like Stephens, attributed the failure of the 2010 consolidation referendum to the question of what would happen to public schools and wondered that, with that issue settled and a potential consolidation referendum leaving suburban school districts intact, there's less trepidation from people in the county.
“I think it shows is that that now that the school's issue has been settled that ... at least from outside of Memphis in the county, suburban Shelby County standpoint ... it probably explains to some degree, that movement that you see, when people are probably presented with information that's informative. I don't know exactly what that information was, but I'm assuming it clarifies things for people,” Cobbins said.
Both Stout Mitchell and Cobbins noted the data may have underrepresented Whitehaven, which only counted among 9% of Memphis respondents. The Memphis neighborhood, which was once its own municipality, is similar in size to Germantown and Collierville and is among the largest and most reliable voting blocs in the county.
Cobbins also said any potential referendum campaign for consolidation has to keep equity — and erasing the economic and educational disparities that exist along racial and geographic lines — in mind.
“I think for anyone that's proposing this measure, or suggesting this measure that, you know, that's a new item, that has to be a part of the discussion,” Cobbins said. “If all these great things happen as a result of a metropolitan form of government, but the disparities remain the same, then we haven't really accomplished a lot.”
Samuel Hardiman covers Memphis city government and politics for The Commercial Appeal. He can be reached by email at samuel.hardiman@commercialappeal.com.