Labor Day may cause cases to spike, warns local disease expert
With the COVID-19 transmission rate rising in Shelby County and the impending combination of the Labor Day weekend and school reopenings, there will be a rise in cases in the weeks to come, said Dr. Steve Threlkeld.
He co-chairs the infection control program at Baptist Memorial Hospital-memphis.
Due to the nature of the virus, that impact might not be seen for several weeks.
“We can kind of predict (where) these things are. The real issue is what this number is doing in two to four more weeks,” Threlkeld said.
After several weeks of sustained decreases in active cases and hospitalizations and a relatively flat test positivity rate, the transmission rate for the virus has crept back over 1 in the past week. However, it remains hard to say exactly where things stand in terms of fighting the virus in Shelby County.
“I don’t know, unfortunately, is the answer. Am I concerned that the number is going up? Yes,” Threlkeld said, adding that looking at any particular number was not a good way to try to understand the current situation.
Many different factors go into the transmission rate, positivity rate, hospitalization figures and other virus-related datapoints.
“Looking at (the transmission rate) bouncing on either side of 1, it’s hard to make any sort of theory about what’s going on,” he said.
While Memphis has yet to exit the first wave of the virus, there are discussions in Europe of a second wave emerging.
Previous viruses, including the 1918 influenza pandemic, came in multiple waves.
“There’s no number too low, because we don’t know if there’s another wave of infection coming,” he said. “You can’t get too low here. Those numbers certainly need to be below 1.”
If people do celebrate the Labor Day weekend, Threlkeld stressed the importance of social distancing, hand washing, sanitizing any common items and high-touch surfaces and wearing a mask when in close proximity to people.
“Labor Day will be a great viral opportunity,” he said.
Corinne Kennedy covers COVID-19’S impact on hospitals, economic development and soccer for The Commercial Appeal. She can be reached via email at Corinne.kennedy@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @Corinneskennedy.