Health experts jittery about fall ‘twindemic’
Coronavirus, flu could be on a collision course
a physician at a Boston community health center that serves a large minority population, Dr. Julita Mir has had a close-up view of the coronavirus pandemic’s impact, even beyond the obvious.
Mir tells of the patient from Guatemala who tearfully begged for a letter authorizing her to work despite having COVID-19 symptoms, and of a patient from Vietnam who postponed his liver ultrasound for six months as he sheltered in place, only to find out in midaugust that he had a fairly large tumor. Mir also knows of people taking Tylenol before a temperature check so they can pass and get the OK to work that day.
But as the U.S. approaches 200,000 deaths from COVID-19, more than any other country, what troubles Mir most is what she envisions for the coming months as a combination of factors threatens to negate recent gains – and result in a deadly autumn.
“My main fear is we will see cases of maybe influenza, maybe COVID, maybe some of the other respiratory viruses,” Mir said, “and because rapid testing is not available on a widespread basis, we will be in front of the people, and we won’t know what they have.”
The return of students to schools and colleges amid the coronavirus pandemic, combined with the approaching flu season and easing of restrictions after a second round of tightening, makes for a worrisome scenario for public-health specialists.
Dr. John Swartzberg, professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of Californiaberkeley, said he expects the current national trend of decreased coronavirus-related deaths to continue through September but then pick up gradually in October and more in November. Deaths from COVID-19 typically trail infections by about a month.
“It’s hard for me to think of a positive scenario where things are going to get better in October and November,” Swartzberg said. “I don’t see behavior changing adequately. I don’t see testing ramping up. I see political winds continue to be oppressive to doing the right things.”
Swartzberg said it wasn’t hard to dias agnose the flu through a phone call or in-person consultation with a patient. That changed with the arrival of COVID-19, which presents symptoms similar to the flu and other diseases caused by respiratory viruses that flourish in the fall and winter.
Absent coronavirus testing with quick results – still a major hurdle across much of the country – the resulting confusion and proliferation of cases of COVID-19 and the flu could result in what some are calling a “twindemic,” which could overwhelm the health care system.
CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said he’s worried about the impact on the coronavirus crisis of an early peak to the flu season, which typically begins late October, gathers steam and crests in January and February.