Tweaks for 4 playoff contenders
As the NFL regular season enters its final month, some teams that looked to be legitimate contenders earlier in the year have slipped.
And while the arguments for a deep playoff run for the Seattle Seahawks, Baltimore Ravens, Arizona Cardinals and Pittsburgh Steelers are definitely more perilous than they had been, there’s time to solve issues facing each squad.
The mark of a great coaching staff is one that can adjust game to game to keep opposing staffs guessing as to what a game plan could entail. But a great coaching staff also knows what its team does well and capitalizes on those strengths.
Here are tweaks that these four playoff contenders should consider in the final month of the regular season and beyond, should they clinch spots in the postseason.
Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
Quicker throws
Part of Russell Wilson’s magic is how he’s able to extend plays and give his receivers more time down the field to get open for bigger chunk plays. And, by and large, that works well when Wilson has enough protection to bounce around in the pocket.
But the Seahawks are reeling, have lost four of their last seven games and the glaring weakness has been an offensive line that’s yielding far too many sacks. Seattle ranks 30th in the NFL with 40 allowed. Not coincidentally, the issue has been devastating in the Seahawks’ losses, with 18 combined sacks in those games. And to be completely fair, it’s often unreasonable to ask any offensive line to hold its blocks for as long as Wilson requires it to.
Watch on this third down how Wilson had an easy throw to running back Carlos Hyde in the left flat to extend the drive. Instead, he took the sack and Seattle was forced to punt.
That’s why the Seahawks should consider encouraging Wilson to use a quicker release, to help mask some of the deficiencies along the offensive line. Only two quarterbacks in the NFL take longer than Wilson (2.98 seconds) to throw the ball: Josh Allen (3.02) of the Bills and Baker Mayfield (3.11) of the Browns.
Wilson, historically, tends to be near the bottom of that list, so it might be a challenging habit to alter. And Wilson is easily in the top three of quarterbacks when throwing the deep ball, competing with Aaron Rodgers (Packers) and Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs). Deep throws take time to develop.
Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
More play action
Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson simply has taken a step back from last year’s MVP campaign. The major passing and rushing metrics back that up. But there’s a fix that could get him back to previous levels.
When Jackson has faked a handoff this season, his completion percentage (70.7%), passer rating (118.1) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (8-to-2) are all well above his season averages (63.8%; 93.9; 17-to-7). Because of Jackson’s rushing ability, that split-second hesitation that the play-action fake creates not only helps create space in gaps that Jackson can rush through, it also lets his receivers create a little more separation down the field on passing plays.
Offensive coordinator Greg Roman should consider ramping up the amount of play-action calls to an even greater degree. Another flaw of Jackson’s and this Ravens team is that they struggle when playing from behind. Since Jackson has been the starter, Baltimore is 1-7 when facing a deficit at halftime.
Arizona Cardinals (6-6)
More designed runs for Kyler Murray Quarterback Kyler Murray is quicker than pretty much any defensive spy a team can throw out there. As the Cardinals have hit a lull and have lost four of their last five games, the theme of their struggles has been slowing Murray’s rushing output.
In victories this year, Murray is averaging 7.7 passing yards per attempt, compared to 6.3 in losses.
He has four fewer passing scores, however, in victories and his passer rating is actually 2.6 points greater in losses than it is in victories. This all suggests that Murray’s rushing ability is likely the key indicator for Arizona success.
Take this most recent three-game losing streak. In each game, Murray has run the ball five times apiece, totaling just 61 yards. Granted, Murray has been dealing with a shoulder injury, so coach Kliff Kingsbury might be trying to limit the times he’s susceptible to hits. But defenses – like that of the Los Angeles Rams, who defeated the Cardinals on Sunday – have focused on corralling Murray and keeping him in the pocket before he’s able to scramble when plays break down.
Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1)
More misdirection, more variation in play calls
As Monday’s loss to Washington — as well as several other lackluster rushing performances this year — showed, this Steelers’ offense simply has been losing at the line of scrimmage more often than not in rushing situations. As a result, Pittsburgh has used the short passing game as an extension of the running game.
Part of the problem with that is that quick bubble screens and 2-yard throws in the flat can become far too predictable and can produce diminished returns over time. The Steelers rank 29th in both rushing offense (92.6 yards per game) and in yards per carry (3.72), and even coach Mike Tomlin has lamented the team’s struggles in short-yardage situations.
While running back James Conner being activated off the reserve/coVID-19 list will certainly boost the Steelers’ ground game, offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner should consider calling a stronger dose of misdirection plays. These are plays designed to trick defenses into thinking they’re headed one way, only to go in another.