Virus outbreak:
But vaccine rollout offers hope for better days
Virus death toll in US closes in on 300,000, but vaccine rollout Monday across the country offers some encouragement.
As the U.S. approaches the once-unthinkable threshold of 300,000 COVID-19 deaths Sunday, the country is barely pausing while hurtling toward the next historic milestone – even with vaccines on the way.
A weekslong surge in coronavirus transmission across the nation, leading to an average of more than 210,000 new infections and nearly 2,500 deaths a day this month, has public health experts not just fearing the next major round number but considering it practically inevitable. According to Johns Hopkins University data, the U.S. had recorded 298,465 coronavirus deaths as of 3 p.m. EST Sunday.
Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has warned the country could reach 450,000 fatalities before Feb. 1, days short of the one-year anniversary of the first known U.S. COVID-19 death.
The influential model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts more than 460,000 deaths by March 1, with or without a rapid vaccine rollout. By comparison, about 405,000 American service members perished in World War II, over nearly four years.
“The way the number of infections has been growing so fast, it’s hard to believe we won’t be at half a million deaths,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, a professor emeritus of infectious diseases and vaccinology at the University of California-berkeley who in late August predicted the current spike. He expects cases, hospitalizations and deaths to continue climbing until late January.
The dreadful near-term outlook, which may only get worse with increased travel and social gatherings during the holidays, is playing out against the backdrop of highly encouraging developments on the vaccine front.
A vaccine produced by Pfizer in conjunction with the German company Biontech was authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Friday and could start getting administered Monday. Another vaccine by the Massachusetts firm Moderna may get FDA clearance in a matter of days. Both inoculations showed 95% effectiveness in late-stage clinical trials.
Other vaccines, from Johnson & Johnson and the British-based firm Astrazeneca, are in the pipeline as well.
“This really is a story of darkness and light in respect to the pandemic and how much worse we’re all hearing and we’re all expecting things to get in the month ahead, on the one hand,” said Jason L. Schwartz, assistant professor of public health at Yale University. “On the other hand, we have these two really promising, really efficacious vaccines that are going to be rolled out in the next week or two.”
With 16 million-plus cases – including more than 2.5 million this month alone – the U.S. is the runaway world leader in coronavirus infections.