Ole Miss hopes to keep INTS down
OXFORD — Turnovers can be fluky plays. But they stop seeming fluky when a team forces them as frequently as Indiana does.
No FBS team intercepted more passes than Indiana, Ole Miss' Outback Bowl opponent, in 2020. The Hoosiers intercepted 17 passes in seven games. No other team even intercepted 16 passes, and the three that picked off 15 passes did so in nine, 10 and 12 games apiece.
Since 2009, only one other FBS team has averaged more than two interceptions, and that team had a player who made 13 interceptions on his own. Indiana has two players who rank in the top five in the country in interceptions and eight who have intercepted at least one pass.
For an Ole Miss team that turned the ball over six times in a loss to LSU last Saturday, and seven times in a loss at Arkansas in October, this is not a comforting trend. Matt Corral has thrown the second-most interceptions in college football this year with 14. Even though 11 of those came in the Arkansas and LSU losses, they still happened.
Given the way Indiana plays, it doesn't need Corral to have another nightmare game to force turnovers. The Hoosiers create havoc and take advantage of opportunities like few other teams do, and Ole Miss is going to have to play as clean of a game as possible to avoid giving Indiana game-shifting plays.
The pressure problem
Indiana leads all Big Ten teams with 23 sacks and is tied for the Big Ten lead with 22 quarterback hurries. That works out to an average of 6.4 sacks plus hurries per game. No. 1 Alabama averaged 6.7, and No. 2 Clemson averaged 6.2.
Pressure has been the key to a significant percentage of the Hoosiers' interceptions. At least five came on plays where a defender hit the opposing quarterback. Two came on plays where the quarterback rushed a throw into good coverage while being hit, one came on a play where a defender hit the quarterback's arm while he was trying to throw and another came on a pass that was popped straight up into a collapsing pocket and intercepted by a defensive lineman.
It's not as if Indiana only pressured inexperienced quarterbacks into mak
ing mistakes. Indiana intercepted Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields three times; Fields has thrown five interceptions in his other 31 games.
Pressure hasn't been much of a concern for Ole Miss. The Rebels have only allowed an average of 3.8 sacks plus hurries per game, but that number is skewed by Corral's willingness to tuck and run.
As an example, LSU only logged three sacks or hurries against Ole Miss, but Corral ran the ball 17 times with only four or five designed runs. That means when Corral felt pressure, he had to escape or couldn't find an open receiver. Corral ran for 158 yards, but that's still a win for a defense trying to stop him from throwing for 400 or more yards.
Ole Miss is going to have to protect from all phases of the defense. The Hoosiers' three-leading sack artists include a defensive lineman, a linebacker and a defensive back. Twelve Hoosiers have logged a quarterback hurry.
It's not as if one lineman needs to key in on one defender. To prevent the Indi
ana pass rush from altering the Rebels' game plan, all of the linemen, tight ends and backs in pass protection will need to be on the top of their game.
Don't give away free opportunities
Turnovers are more about luck than any coach would ever want to acknowledge. Whether you define luck as a player being in the right place at the right time because of his preparation or just a player coincidentally finding the ball zooming toward his chest, players don't create interceptions unless the ball comes their direction.
An overwhelming percentage of Indiana's interceptions happened on bad passes that found their way to an Indiana defender. Pressure affected a number of these throws, but even more came in clean pockets.
Five interceptions have been on overthrows, three on underthrows or balls thrown behind the receiver and as many as five on deep heaves into double coverage or crowded zones. This is a recipe
for high turnover volume for any team.
Of the 17 interceptions, only two or three came on plays where the intended receiver had any chance to catch the ball. Indiana did a great job of capitalizing on opportunities.
But the easiest way to prevent Indiana from taking advantage of easy opportunities is to not give them any. Ole Miss has done a great job of that. Coach Lane Kiffin and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby have designed an offense that doesn't allow Corral to improvise very often and Corral's interceptions have had more to do with bad decisionmaking than bad accuracy or ball placement.
Still, it only takes one mistake for Indiana to take the ball away.
Ole Miss is going to need to play within its tempo and take advantage of open, early reads instead of lengthy extended plays if it is going to pass with any effectiveness against the Hoosiers.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.