Dire projection offered for Shelby Co.
County could see 1,000 COVID-19 deaths in 8 weeks
The COVID-19 death toll in Shelby County could accelerate in the next eight weeks if the pandemic is left unchecked.
People could begin to die by the dozens each day and Shelby County could see about 1,000 more people perish between now and mid-february, projections from the Memphis and Shelby County COVID-19 joint task-force show. Such a scenario occurring would mean that the number of deaths from the pandemic would double and then some.
The Shelby County known death toll was 821 as of Tuesday. Over the past week, the county has reported an average of 10 deaths a day.
The projections outline three scenarios for Shelby County’s pandemic curve — better, the same or worse. The worstcase scenario is modeled after what would happen if Shelby County began to resemble what happened in North Dakota in October — cases reaching more than 1,500 a day in January. The middle road represents what happens if cases stay roughly steady.
The other scenario projects what happens if cases decline like they did in Shelby County during August — a decline precipitated by the widespread adoption of masks and some business restrictions. The status quo and bestcase scenario project 639 and 469 more deaths between now and mid-february
Each scenario assumes the current known Shelby County mortality rate for COVID-19 — 1.35%.
Dr. Manoj Jain, a key member of the taskforce who has advised Memphis throughout the pandemic, and Dr. Fridtjof Thomas, a biostatistician at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center, produced the projections and presented them to joint task-force Tuesday morning. Jain presented them to the Memphis City Council afterward.
On Tuesday, another key member of the taskforce, Dr. Jon Mccullers of UTHSC, citing the reported 905 cases Tuesday, noted what a 1.3% mortality rate means as more and more people are infected.
“These 905 new cases combined with our 1.3% mortality rate means 12 people in Shelby County diagnosed with COVID-19 yesterday are likely to die in the coming weeks,” Mccullers said.
‘This is the last time’
In his presentation to council, Jain noted the light at the end of the tunnel — people are being vaccinated. As they are, the pandemic will peter out and broad-scale interventions from government won’t be necessary.
“This is the last time we will have to flatten the curve,” Jain told the Memphis City Council. He made his presentation alongside Shelby County Health Director Alisa Haushalter as the two explained the reasoning behind the enhanced restrictions in the Safer at Home order the health department issued Monday.
That order restricted restaurants to 25% indoor capacity for dining and limited grocery stores and other retailers Haushalter said the restrictions were based on what the health department felt “realistically” could blunt the spread of the pandemic. On Monday, when she explained the directive to the Shelby County Commission, Haushalter acknowledged what the projections show.
“At this point, we don’t anticipate reversing the curve, the goal is to blunt the curve and reduce deaths,” she said. However, on Tuesday, Haushalter noted that absent more robust statewide or national mitigation measures, there is a limit to what Shelby County can do.
“They think it will be enough to make this spike blunt,” Councilman Jeff Warren, a physician and a member of the COVID-19 task-force, said to his fellow council members before a vote on a resolution that expressed support for the health department. Warren sponsored the resolution and urged his colleagues to vote for it in a show of support for what has been an unpopular directive.
The vote on the resolution went as such:
Yes: Michalyn Easter-thomas, Edmund Ford, Sr., Cheyenne Johnson, Martavius Jones, Rhonda Logan, J.B. Smiley, Jr., Jamita Swearengen and Warren.
Frank Colvett and Worth Morgan abstained. J. Ford Canale, Chase Carlisle and Patrice Robinson weren’t present at the time of the vote.
How accurate are the projections?
The early part of the pandemic was characterized by projections showing overwhelmed hospitals nationwide. For many places, it took months for that to come to pass, if at all. However, another piece of projection data that Jain prepared and presented to local leaders in the spring has largely come to pass.
In March, Jain outlined three scenarios ahead of the first Safer at Home order local leaders would issue. Each of the scenarios corresponded to the level and efficacy of social-distancing measures put in place.
• The high estimate put the number of people infected in the Memphis metro area at 405,186, ICU admissions at 40,519 and deaths at 8,104.
• The middle estimate put infections at 189,087, ICU admissions at 9,454 and deaths at 1,891.
• The low estimate estimated infections at 13,506, ICU admissions at 338 and deaths at 68.
Through nine months of the pandemic, Memphis and Shelby County have tread between the middle and lower courses. Known infections sit at 62,334 as of Tuesday — though Jain and other experts believe that because of asymptomatic spread the actual number of infections is much higher.
Thousands of people have been hospitalized both in acute care and intensive care units, though the actual number of different COVID-19 hospitalizations in Shelby County is unknown.
For much of the pandemic, the county has reported an average of about three deaths a day. In recent weeks, as cases have accelerated, that number has climbed. Jain and Thomas’ new projections, the ones they presented Tuesday, show just how accurate those initial projections were.
Samuel Hardiman covers Memphis city government, politics and the pandemic response for The Commercial Appeal. He can be reached by email at samuel.hardiman@commercialappeal.com or followed on Twitter at @samhardiman.