Can Ohio St. hold off Illini for No. 1 seed?
In a battle between two projected No. 1 seeds, Ohio State fell to Michigan 92-87 on Sunday at home.
The Buckeyes (18-5, 12-5) and top No. 2 seed Illinois are so close that Ohio State would have dropped from its No. 1 seed with a loss to any other Big Ten team besides Michigan.
The Fighting Illini (16-5, 12-3) haven't lost since Jan. 16, a head-to-head meeting with the Buckeyes that is the difference maker right now.
When applying a blind résumé test, Ohio State has eight Quadrant 1 (top-25 home, top-75 away) victories compared to Illinois' seven. But the Illini have a better NET score of 4 compared to OSU'S 7, partially due to playing two fewer games, which included a postponement of their scheduled Feb. 11 clash with Michigan (now slated for March 2).
Ohio State has a better strength of schedule, but Illinois could shorten the margin by playing four of its last five on the road – with all of those Quad 1 opportunities. OSU, meanwhile, only has three games in Big Ten play remaining.
Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan are close to solidifying No. 1 seeds. Should this battle for the final top seed remain tight, a March 6 meeting between Ohio State and Illinois – the Big Ten finale for both teams – could be a crucial outcome for the NCAA selection committee entering Selection Sunday, which is March 14.
The NCAA Tournament tips off March 18.
No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State.
Last four in: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Maryland, Syracuse.
First four out: Georgia Tech, Indiana, Connecticut, Utah State.
Next four out: St. Johns, Stanford, Ole Miss, SMU.
Others considered for at-large bids: Memphis, Richmond, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, UAB, Georgia, Duke.
On life support: TCU, Marquette, Providence, Marshall, Utah, Arizona State, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Kentucky, South Carolina, Texas A&M, St Mary's, San Francisco, Michigan State, North Carolina State, Dayton, Davidson, Nevada, Penn State.
Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (9), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), Big East (4), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2).
Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences - (20 total): America East - UMBC, Atlantic Sun - Liberty, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UCSB, CAA - Northeastern, C-USA UAB, Horizon - Wright State, MAAC Siena, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - Norfolk St., Northeast - Bryant, OVC - Belmont, Patriot - Navy, Southern - UNCG, Southland - Sam Houston, SWAC Prairie View A&M, Summit - South Dakota, Sun Belt - Texas State, WAC Grand Canyon