Tigers still have a path to NCAA tourney
Memphis coach Penny Hardaway called it hope Monday but it sounded more like a prayer. Or perhaps even a request to reconsider.
“You're hoping that the conference does us some justice,” he said, “to try to get that game back for us that we missed.”
So here we are, on the cusp of March, and the Tigers have gone from disappointing to surging to sidelined to hopeful desperation, all in a matter of about a month.
They are scheduled to return to the court Wednesday against Tulane at Fedexforum after a COVID-19 outbreak led to the postponement of four straight games.
It's the beginning of a stretch in which this season that stood still for more than two weeks transforms into an all-out sprint toward Selection Sunday.
So why not embrace it?
This is the closest Memphis has been to the NCAA Tournament since its run to the AAC Tournament championship game in 2016. This is the closest Memphis has been to an at-large berth since the program's NCAA Tournament drought began following the 2013-14 season.
This is as complicated as it's ever been because of the havoc wreaked on the schedule by COVID-19. This is also pretty straightforward if – and it might be the biggest if of all – Memphis emerges from what will be a 18-day break between games looking similar to the team that reeled off six wins in seven games before the pandemic brought the run to a halt.
“We are very aware, we are very woke in what we need to do,” Hardaway said, “and we are in control of our own destiny, if we can get the schedule worked out properly. We don't have to worry about someone else beating someone else. We just have to take care of our own situation.”
This is the stance everyone – coaches, players and fans – should be taking. The anxiety-ridden feeling of having a legitimate shot at working back from the outside of the NCAA Tournament bubble is a whole lot better than the feeling of recent years, when talking yourself into the Tigers' tournament chances involved the basketball version of Jedi mind tricks.
And that's the most important point of all. There's a feasible path available to Memphis no matter how the schedule shakes out.
Consider these four scenarios. Scenario 1: The AAC doesn't reschedule any of the games Memphis
missed and the Tigers simply play out the final four regular season games remaining on the original schedule before moving on to the conference tournament in less than three weeks.
Scenario 2: The AAC reschedules both the Wichita State and Houston games, as Hardaway is hoping. Hypothetically, the AAC could do this by shoehorning the Tigers' road game at Houston after Memphis is scheduled to play at USF and before Memphis and Houston are scheduled to play on March 7 in the regular season finale.
It would also involve the league canceling a previously scheduled game for both Memphis and Wichita State. Or the Tigers could maybe play Wichita State the Tuesday before the conference tournament begins.
Scenario 3: The AAC only reschedules the Wichita State game, which would still likely involve the AAC canceling a previously scheduled game for Memphis and Wichita State.
Scenario 4: The AAC only reschedules the Houston game by having the two schools play one another in backto-back games to close the regular season.
Scenario 1 isn't as bad as it might appear because it still gives Memphis a reasonable chance to win the AAC regular season title if it can go 4-0. All it would need is for Wichita State to lose once.
But this also takes away two potential quadrant one wins that would buff up a Memphis resume that currently lacks a marquee win and won't include a notable non conference win.
Scenario 2 is what Hardaway wants and, frankly, it's probably in the best interests of the entire league as it pertains to the NCAA Tournament. Memphis and Wichita State are both in similar situations, needing more quality wins.
So this could give the AAC its best chance to avoid becoming the one-bid league most NCAA bracketologists predict it to be at the moment. It would also aid the integrity of the regular-season title.
But it would entail the AAC making unprecedented changes to its schedule, either by cancelling games for teams like Tulane and USF, or by extending the regular season a couple days.
The league is in an unenviable position since both Memphis and SMU are trying to emerge from COVID-19 pauses during the last month of the season. However, the AAC did itself no favors by not rescheduling any games during the 19 days in January when Memphis was the victim of other programs going through COVID-19 pauses. Hence, Hardaway's plea for “justice.” Scenario 3 would be surprising simply because there are more hoops to jump through in order to reschedule Wichita State than Houston.
Scenario 4 seems to be the most likely outcome because it's easier to pull off logistically and it at least offers Memphis two cracks at snagging the Houston win most agree is a requirement if the Tigers want to give themselves a chance to earn an at-large berth on Selection Sunday.
“You've got to beat Houston,” Hardaway said.
So buckle up. There's going to be March Madness in Memphis this year.
Whether it's the madness everyone around town so badly wants, well, we can only hope.