Pandemic movers sought affordability
USPS mail-forwarding data in 2020 analyzed
The full-year data is in, and it’s time to put the “cities are dead” narrative to bed.
Yes, it’s true: Generally, more people left major cities than moved to them over the course of the strange year that was 2020, but in terms of raw numbers, the population changes were minimal, according to U.S. Postal Service mail-forwarding data.
A separate Bankrate/yougov nationwide survey found that 16% of respondents moved in 2020, but that rate jumped to 32% for Gen Z-ers and 26% for millennials. People said they moved to be closer to friends or family, to seek a better cost of living or in search of more space.
The top three cities for move-outs: New York (Manhattan), Houston and Austin, Texas, each lost a net of fewer than 15,000 citizens. The rest of the top 10 all lost under 10,000 residents overall, according to the Postal Service.
The Postal Service data has some limitations. The 12,681,085 change-ofaddress requests that Bankrate analyzed, which covered Jan. 1 through Dec. 31, 2020, were compiled by ZIP code and only registered moves within or between ZIP codes with at least 10 requests over that period. For example, if three people or families moved from Bethpage, NY 11714 to Myrtle Beach, SC 29577, that pair would not show up in the data set, but if 11 people or families made that same move, it would. Even so, the numbers provide some good insights into moving patterns during the pandemic.
Here are the biggest 2020 moving trends the Postal Service numbers reveal:
Movers preferred smaller cities or less-dense neighborhoods. Take Manhattan as a case study. Over the course of 2020, New York’s densest borough lost a net of about 12,000 residents to other ZIP codes. Of those who moved out, more than a third went just across the East River to Brooklyn, the city’s most populous borough. Brooklyn is less dense than Manhattan, so movers may have gone in search of some breathing room.
In a recent Q&A, Ray Rodriguez, the regional mortgage sales manager for New York at TD Bank, said those responses mirrored what he was seeing in his job.
“In New York City the outer boroughs are very well alive,” he said. “People who are used to living an urban lifestyle are going to continue an urban lifestyle. I’m thinking of two of my employees who purchased condos in the city, they upgraded to have outdoor space.”
Less-dense outlying areas were top destinations for move-outs from every major city that topped the Postal Service data.
Gen Z-ers and millennials most likely to move, poll finds. A Bankrate/ Yougov poll showed that 10% of Americans moved or relocated due to COVID in 2020 and were still relocated as of February. Some 6% moved but had returned as of then. And 84% of those polled did not move during the year.
About 18% of movers during 2020 sought out new housing because they wanted more space, with Gen Z-ers and millennials being the most likely to move, at 18% and 17%, respectively. Blacks were a third more likely to have moved and not returned compared with whites.
Here are some of the top trends the survey revealed:
h 31% moved to be closer to family/ friends. h 27% wanted more affordable living. h 21% relocated for their job. h 18% needed more space. h 17% wanted a different climate. h 17% moved because they now have the ability to work remotely from anywhere.
Movers didn’t stray too far from home. Those who did move during the pandemic mostly stayed pretty close to the homes they were leaving.
Of the 12,681,085 change of address requests for popular moves, just over half a million requests in the sample were from those who moved to another county; the rest stayed in the same county, ZIP code, city or rural area. Similarly, just 42,000 change requests reflected moves to another state.
Four of the top five cities for moveouts were Houston, Austin, Orlando and Dallas. For all those cities, the top five moved-to destinations were less than 30 miles away. New York (Manhattan) was the top city for move-outs during 2020, and three of the top five destinations for its movers were less than 15 miles away. The other top destinations for Manhattanites were more than 100 miles away on Long Island in the Hamptons beach communities, where many Manhattan residents own second homes.
Housing affordability was key. It may not be obvious when first looking at the Postal Service data, but a little digging reveals that many movers were likely motivated by a cheaper cost of living in 2020, too.
The pandemic brought employment changes for much of the workforce as stores and public venues closed down and many companies shifted to remote operations. As more employees worked remotely, many had newfound flexibility in their living arrangements. For those who lost their jobs during the pandemic, housing affordability was an even more crucial factor in the decision to move.