April will be a challenge for Grizzlies’ playoff chances
April showers bring May flowers, so the saying goes. But can the Grizzlies survive their own April showers to have playoff hopes in May?
That’s the challenge they face starting Friday when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves (7 p.m., Bally Sports Southeast). Coming into Thursday, the Grizzlies were tied for 10th in the Western Conference with the Golden State Warriors and were two games behind the No. 7-seed Dallas Mavericks
Yet with 11 of 17 games on the road, it’s not just about staying afloat. It’s about surviving the toughest stretch of the season
Several websites project the Grizzlies to reach the play-in tournament.
Team rankings gives the Grizzlies a 34.9% chance as of Thursday, while Fivethirtyeight and ESPN’S Basketball Power Index has them at 22% and 14.6% respectively
It’s good signs but computers don’t play on the court. After the Grizzlies host Minnesota, things get much harder.
What lies ahead
Fifteen of the 17 games are against teams that would be in the playoffs or the play-in tournament, and 11 of them have winning records. Their four-game road trip begins Sunday against the Philadelphia 76ers, who expect to have MVP candidate Joel Embiid back.
The seven-game road trip – the longest in Memphis franchise history –
opens with the Chicago Bulls on April 16, but the remaining six games are against almost certain playoff locks.
The Grizzlies face the Milwaukee Bucks, the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, two games against the Portland Trail Blazers and close at Denver.
The Grizzlies are 1-3 against those teams, plus the trip opens and closes with back-to-back series.
The good news? Four of the six home games are with teams that have losing records in the Timberwolves, Bulls, Orlando Magic and Indiana Pacers.
Best-case scenario
Let’s assume the Grizzlies top the Timberwolves. They won the first game in January without Ja Morant and even with No. 1 overall pick Anthony Edwards coming on strong, they should protect home court.
What’s next? Maybe Embiid returns Saturday from a left knee bone bruise and sits Sunday since it’s a back-toback. The Grizzlies then face the Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks and New York Knicks – all three are winnable games but also dangerous ones. The Heat and Knicks are elite defenses, and the Hawks beat them in December.
The Nuggets added Aaron Gordon and the Bulls traded for All-star Nikola Vucevic at the trade deadline which makes both teams better. So the hope for the seven-game trip is the Grizzlies beat Chicago and earn a split in Portland.
What’s everyone else’s schedule?
Besides the Grizzlies, there’s five teams in contention for the play-in tournament. The Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs, Warriors, Sacramento Kings and New Orleans Pelicans.
According to Tankathon, the Mavericks have the second-easiest schedule based on opponent win percentage, including a date in Memphis on April 14. The No. 8-seeded Spurs have the second-hardest schedule, which has 10 road games – including a five-game trek – and five back-to-back games.
The Warriors are ranked 26th in strength of schedule and have a five-game road trip in April. They also have just two back-to-back series compared to the Grizzlies, ranked 21st in strength of schedule, having four.
The Pelicans and Kings, who sit 1 1/2 games behind Memphis, are ranked 10th and 12th in toughest schedules. The Pelicans have nine road games and four back-to-backs while the Kings face the Jazz and Mavericks twice, travel to Phoenix and Dallas but get three games against the Timberwolves.
So while the Grizzlies’ road is tough, other teams around them could struggle just as much.
A wild card in the wings
As difficult as April is, there’s hope in Jaren Jackson Jr’s return at the month’s end. He may not play much, but what he can, it could help the Grizzlies at just the right time.
There’s no clear return date for Jackson, but if he were to return on April 23 at Portland, he’ll get at most five games in the month, including three against the Trail Blazers. That’s good enough even if he’s ruled out April 26 against Denver as a back-to-back.
Even in limited action, Jackson could be enough to give some hope going into May.
Prediction
If the Grizzlies go 6-11 this month, it may sound disappointing but reasonable. They must win their four home games against teams with losing records. They must beat the Hawks in Atlanta since both teams will coming off a back-to-back.
The seven-game road trip will likely sink the Grizzlies under .500 for the rest of the season, so they must beat the Bulls to start things. The month could easily end with fans scouting late lottery picks like Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert.
But 6-11 might not be a death blow. The Spurs, who play as many second half games as the Grizzlies, could crash out this month plus the Grizzlies also hold a tiebreaker edge.
The Pelicans and Kings finished March strong but can fans bet on two of the league’s worst defensive teams to sustain that play? Not likely.
When Jackson returns, the Grizzlies have an ace up their sleeve. But the hand they’ve been dealt has a gauntlet that could wash away any dreams of playoff basketball.