Playoffs within reach
Giannotto: Grizzlies’ remarkably average season has them on pace to make the postseason.
The most remarkable part of this Memphis Grizzlies season is how remarkably average it has been.
Through COVID-19 protocols, Ja Morant's sprained ankle, and Jaren Jackson's extended absence, through a condensed schedule, through 10 different starting lineups and a shuffling cast of 10-man rotations, through all sorts of circumstances that compromised this NBA season held in the middle of a pandemic, the Grizzlies' record hasn't been more than two games above or below .500 for more than two months now.
They've been so average for so long that with only 25 regular-season games remaining entering Tuesday's game at Miami, it's worth embracing actual expectations for the first time since Morant and the current nucleus were put together. It's worth believing, and expecting, that the Grizzlies will continue to be average, and therefore it's worth making a declaration about this team.
The standard for this group should be qualifying for postseason play. Anything less than a spot in the Western Conference's play-in games would feel like a disappointment at this point.
Not a future-altering disappointment, but a disappointment nonetheless based on how often these players talk about making the playoffs and what happened during last summer's swoon in the NBA bubble that followed such an enthralling pre-pandemic regular season run.
This is a team that mostly avoided setbacks during the early portions of this organizational rebuild, and missing out on the NBA'S new play-in scenario would classify as a setback.
This season is so hard to frame in a conventional way, particularly in Memphis where the goals were never going to be straightforward this season.
The Grizzlies are neither dead-set on winning at all costs nor content with losing. The front office has one eye on the future while the other evaluates a young nucleus that probably has a few too many similar parts.
It's hard to do a proper evaluation of those pieces when one of the team's cornerstones hasn't played in a game, and yet Memphis had sole possession of the No. 8 spot in the Western Conference standings.
So it's time to think of the Grizzlies not as a team trying to hang on to its spot among the top-10 in the Western Conference, but as a team that has played like one of the top 10 teams in the Western Conference for a long time now in advance of a schedule that might be more manageable than it seems at first glance.
It's time to consider that average
is probably good enough to reach the very feasible goal of participating in one of the Western Conference's play-in games.
It's time for the results to matter, and for this remarkably average Grizzlies' season to continue on its remarkably average trajectory.
Though Memphis is in the midst of playing 11 of 14 games on the road, it isn't in the worst spot, either.
The Grizzlies have eight back-toback games left that will be the second night of a back-to-back, and five of them are on the road. But the NBA schedule makers also worked in eight games facing opponents playing on the second night of a back-to-back, including five in which Memphis will have the previous day off.
Now compare that schedule to the rest of the Western Conference teams competing for a spot in the play-in games. Memphis and San Antonio have the most regular-season games remaining (25), but the Spurs have two more road games than the Grizzlies.
Only Golden State, meanwhile, has a schedule in which the average winning percentage of the remaining opponents is lower than that of Memphis (.490) among the six teams slotted No. 8 through No. 13 in the Western Conference standings.
It's a schedule that, other than perhaps the frequency of games, won't hold Memphis back from making the postseason.
There are variables at play, such as unpredictable lineup swerves. There will be games when Memphis isn't full strength, just like there will be games when the opposing team isn't at full strength. But this caveat has mostly served Memphis well given its depth.
The Grizzlies just swept the Philadelphia 76ers without ever facing Joel Embiid, and the Brooklyn Nets without ever having to deal with James Harden, Kevin Durant or Kyrie Irving. They beat Boston last month without Jayson Tatum, and split two games with Golden State without Steph Curry. They just beat Minnesota without D'angelo Russell, and nearly beat Utah without Donovan Mitchell.
They won seven games in a row in January, then lost four games in a row, and they've only won three-consecutive games or lost three games in a row once apiece since then. They've done it all without their second-leading scorer (Jackson), and they've done it all with minimal contributions from their coveted trade deadline acquisition of a year ago (Justise Winslow).
They've had a remarkable run of average NBA basketball, and average is a remarkable compliment for these Grizzlies. So why expect anything less than average the rest of the season.