Memphis vs. UCF scouting report
Memphis center Jacob Likes watched the Tigers lose to UCF in the 2017 and 2018 AAC Championship games while attending Christian Brothers High School.
Even though the Tigers (4-3, 1-2 AAC) got payback last season with a comefrom-behind 50-49 win, the rivalry is still bitter and the next chapter is on Friday (6 p.m., ESPN2).
“It doesn’t matter we beat them last year. We need to beat them this year, next year and any time we play,” Likes said.
UCF (3-3, 1-2) has won all seven meetings in Orlando. Memphis needs its first AAC road win. Here’s what to know with the Tigers returning to the Bounce House.
Meet UCF QB Mikey Keene
With Dillon Gabriel still out with a fractured clavicle, true freshman Mikey Keene starts his fourth consecutive game at quarterback for the Knights.
The 5-foot-11 Keene was a three-star recruit from Arizona and enrolled early in January. He’s thrown for 513 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in the last three games but unlike past UCF quarterbacks, he’s not a threat to run with minus-5 yards on eight attempts.
It can work to Memphis’ advantage if the Tigers pressure him but Memphis also can’t allow Keene to have his best game of the season.
Injury watch
Coach Ryan Silverfield said quarterback Seth Henigan returned to practice after leaving in the fourth quarter in the 35-17 win against Navy last week. Henigan is still expected to play although the Tigers will monitor what Silverfield said postgame was a hand injury.
Running back Rodrigues Clark, linebacker Thomas Pickens and receiver Gabe Rogers remain game-time decisions. Safety Sanchez Blake didn’t play against Navy and his status is unclear since he wasn’t listed on the team’s depth chart.
For UCF, receiver Jaylon Robinson, who had 10 catches for 173 yards last season against Memphis, is “week-toweek” according to the Orlando Sentinel.
Control the crowd
UCF’S Bounce House is notoriously loud and will be the toughest atmosphere Memphis has faced so far. Linebacker Xavier Cullens said this week that the energy is so high from the crowd that can players can lose their breath just being excited by it.
But Memphis can control that by coming out sharp and avoiding mistakes. The Tigers had just one turnover against Navy and finished all three red zone trips with touchdowns. Both are key since UCF has forced at least one takeaway in every game but is 100th in opponent red-zone touchdown conversions.
Protecting the ball and scoring on drives will keep the rowdy crowd in check and help the Tigers avoid past road mistakes.
Keep up the run game
UCF is 95th in rushing defense and gave up 336 rushing yards in a 56-21 loss to Cincinnati last week. That’s good news for a Tigers team that rushed for 200 yards against Navy.
But can Memphis’ offensive line be physical against a typically tough UCF front? Despite the Tigers’ road struggles, they ran the ball OK in their last two games. OK won’t cut it in Orlando.
UCF is allowing 4.53 yards per carry, which is 99th nationally. The Tigers have to take advantage and find ways to get Brandon Thomas and Co. going.
A different UCF offense
Memphis and UCF have produced a few high-scoring games the past four years. But UCF hasn’t had many big plays this season, especially with Gabriel out.
The Tigers have 10 plays from scrimmage of 50 yards or more - third nationally - and UCF has just one. For plays of 30 yards or more, Memphis leads the nation with 26, more than double UCF’S total (12).
UCF also hasn’t had more than 360 yards in any of its last three games.
Prediction
UCF 30, Memphis 27: UCF hasn’t looked explosive the last three games so Memphis has a chance to keep up. But the Tigers’ defense hasn’t been great on the road and needs to prove beating Navy wasn’t just beating a bad team.