Should Ole Miss be favored to beat LSU?
OXFORD — After the two weeks of barely scraping past with a win, it’s time to question Ole Miss’ ability to win big.
No. 12 Ole Miss (5-1, 2-1 SEC) hosts LSU (4-3, 2-2) on Saturday (2:30 p.m., CBS). The Tipico Sportsbook and USA TODAY Sports list Ole Miss as a 9.5point favorite to beat the Tigers. In two years under coach Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss has won six SEC games and only two of them have been by more than one score. One was against winless Vanderbilt, the other was against South Carolina who fired its coach the next day.
The Rebels have beaten eight Power 5 opponents in the last two years under Kiffin. Five of those wins came by seven points or fewer. Two of them, including this month’s win over Arkansas, came by one point.
LSU is a formidable opponent coming off a back-and-forth win against Florida but has struggled on the road. But is this the type of Ole Miss team that can put games away like that?
Here’s the argument for and against Ole Miss covering a 9.5-point spread.
The pass rush problems
LSU ranks second in the SEC with 21 sacks. Ole Miss is tied for the SEC lead, averaging three sacks per conference game. LSU and Ole Miss both rank in the bottom half of the SEC in sacks allowed per game.
Both teams have good pass rushes and are shaky in pass protection. Compounding the problem are injuries to their most productive receiving targets. Ole Miss’ Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders are both hurt and LSU could be without Kayshon Boutte and Deion Smith.
With injuries piling up in the receiver rooms and the offensive lines already shaky, this could be the type of game where both teams let their pass rushers free. Expect Ole Miss’ Sam Williams and Cedric Johnson and LSU’S BJ Ojulari and Maason Smith to have big days that turn third-and-longs into disaster scenarios for both offenses and alter the way the Rebels and Tigers call pass plays.
Two run games going opposite ways
Ole Miss’ rushing attack is in an interesting spot. Quarterback Matt Corral carried 30 times against Tennessee but is banged up. Running back Jerrion Ealy has been limited for two weeks and fellow backs Henry Parrish and Snoop Conner weren’t particularly effective last week against Tennessee.
Prior to last week, LSU’S run game had been bad. The Tigers averaged 2.91 yards per carry, only had four rushing touchdowns in six games and never ran for more than 150 yards in a game. Then,
against Florida, LSU ran 45 times for 321 yards (7.13 per carry) and three touchdowns.
If Corral is limited and Ole Miss’ other running backs continue to underwhelm, it may be difficult for the Rebels to expose LSU’S less-than-stellar run defense. Meanwhile, high-octane running attacks from Alabama and Arkansas were able to grind out long drives and set up third-and-short against Ole Miss with relative ease.
The predominance of evidence is that Ole Miss’ rushing attack is very good and LSU’S isn’t. That wasn’t what we saw last week, though. And if those
trends continue to chart in different directions, Ole Miss could be in trouble.
The verdict
Both teams are dealing with injuries. Both teams have questions about how important last week’s results were. LSU has significantly more talent but Ole Miss has played significantly better and more consistently this year.
Ole Miss has the edge. But this game has all the making of being lower scoring, and closer, than people are expecting.