SEC rivals No. 12 Ole Miss, LSU meet in middle
OXFORD — Two teams trending in opposite directions will meet in the middle Saturday.
No. 12 Ole Miss (5-1, 2-1 SEC) hosts LSU (4-3, 2-2) Saturday (2:30 p.m., CBS) in Oxford for a rivalry matchup in front of a sold-out Vaught-hemingway Stadium crowd. The Rebels are trying to start 3-1 in conference play and beat LSU, both things they haven’t done since 2015. The Tigers are playing their first game since announcing this year will be coach Ed Orgeron’s final in Baton Rouge as they embark on a new era just two years removed from winning a national championship.
LSU is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 49-42 upset of Florida, while Ole Miss is coming off back-toback last-second, one-possession wins over Tennessee and Arkansas.
Here is the Clarion Ledger’s scouting report and prediction for Saturday’s matchup.
Ole Miss offense vs. LSU defense
It’s a little hard to get a read on this LSU defense. The Tigers went from allowing 330 rushing yards to Kentucky to allowing 138 against Florida, the team that was previously leading the SEC in rush yards per game. LSU has both allowed the most touchdown passes and snagged the most interceptions in the SEC.
Ole Miss’ offense is among the best in the country, leading the FBS in first downs per game and ranking No. 2 in yards per game and No. 5 in points per game. Only North Texas runs more plays per game than the Rebels.
But injuries are a concern. Quarterback Matt Corral is banged up. Coach Lane Kiffin has refused to comment on the health of receivers Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders, running back Jerrion Ealy, tight end Chase Rogers and guard Caleb Warren. One thing Kiffin did say is he hasn’t dealt with injury and depth issues this pervasive since he was the head coach of a probation-ridden Southern Cal team.
Probability dictates Ole Miss’ offense has the matchup advantage. Even a depleted Ole Miss offense put up 510 yards on 101 plays against Tennessee. The Rebels are going to move the ball. It’s just a matter of whether they can move it enough to play the style of game they’re accustomed to.
LSU offense vs. Ole Miss defense
Like Ole Miss, LSU is dealing with injuries on offense. Most notably, star receiver Kayshon Boutte is out and the Tigers’ offensive line has been a revolving door all year.
That said, LSU’S offense turned a corner against Florida. The Tigers ran for 321 yards and three touchdowns after running for only 500 yards and four touchdowns in their first six games. Quarterback Max Johnson only needed to throw the ball 24 times, compared to an average of 36.5 throws per game the rest of the year.
If LSU can run the ball Saturday like it did against Florida, Ole Miss could be in trouble. The Rebels are allowing 261 rushing yards per SEC game. Even if Ole Miss’ opponents are averaging a respectable 4.9 yards per carry, they’re carrying 52.6 times per game; only Air Force, Army and Navy run more times per game than that.
Ole Miss needs to force LSU to throw. If the Tigers run the ball the way they did against Florida, they can keep this game close like Arkansas and Tennessee did. If they’re forced to the air, Ole Miss can breathe a little more comfortably.
Score prediction
Ole Miss 31, LSU 28: Another week, another close game. Ole Miss keeps pulling these out, so give the Rebels the benefit of the doubt. But given both teams’ injuries at the skill positions, expect a slightly lower scoring game than anticipated.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.