Sizing up Tennessee’s likeliest bowl destinations
Tennessee football is in good shape for a bowl appearance in coach Josh Heupel's first season.
UT could self-impose a bowl ban from an ongoing NCAA investigation, but there's no indication of that. If that status holds, the Vols (4-4, 2-3 SEC) must win two of their final four games to earn bowl eligibility.
UT plays a toss-up game at No. 17 Kentucky on Saturday (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Then it will be an underdog against No. 1 Georgia and a favorite against South Alabama and Vanderbilt.
So where could the Vols go this bowl season? Here's an overview of the SEC bowl scenarios and UT'S most likely destination.
How many SEC slots are there?
The SEC will probably have between nine and 13 bowl-eligible teams. The safe bet is about 10 or 11 teams, and they should have options available.
One or two SEC teams (Georgia and Alabama) will make the College Football Playoff. The SEC'S best non-cfp team goes to the Sugar Bowl. At least one more team could fill an at-large spot in either the Fiesta Bowl or Peach Bowl, but it would probably take a 10-2 record (perhaps Texas A&M, Auburn or Kentucky).
And the Citrus Bowl has the next pick of SEC teams.
Then the next six SEC teams are assigned to a pool of bowls — Liberty, Texas, Outback, Gator, Music City and Duke's Mayo. If UT has a 7-5 record, it should go to one of those. If the Vols are 6-6, it will depend on what happens to the rest of the league.
The bottom tier includes the Birmingham Bowl and Gasparilla Bowl. It's possible that a 6-6 UT team could slide to this level. And there's even a possible alternate spot in the First Responder Bowl, but the SEC should run out of bowl-eligible teams before then.
Autozone Liberty Bowl
This makes sense for UT for numerous reasons. UT was supposed to play in the Liberty Bowl last year, but it pulled out due to COVID-19 positive tests on the team.
The Liberty Bowl would love to have the Vols, but they haven't played there since 1986. This is a prime opportunity to finally get them back in Memphis for the Dec. 28 game.
If UT has a 7-5 record, it would be in the pool of the six bowls that includes the Liberty. Depending on what happens in CFP selections and other SEC teams' records, it could also go to the Liberty Bowl at 6-6.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Formerly the Belk Bowl, this Dec. 30 game in Charlotte is among the six bowls that could have UT as an option.
Like the Liberty Bowl, this would be unfamiliar to the Vols because they've never played in this bowl, which has hosted six SEC teams since 2014.
If Memphis touts a good proximity for the entire UT fan base, the Duke's Mayo Bowl offers an even closer destination for East Tennesseans. Charlotte is only 230 miles from Knoxville.
Some bowl projections recently slotted UT and Clemson in the Duke's Mayo Bowl, which would be an interesting matchup. But there a lot of moving pieces to make that happen.
One minor pushback to this bid is that UT played its 2018 season opener against West Virginia at Bank of America Stadium, the site of the Duke's Mayo Bowl. It's not a major factor, but it will be considered when pairing teams with the right bowl.
Transperfect Music City Bowl
This is a popular pick among recent bowl projections for the usual reasons.
The Music City Bowl, played on Dec. 30 in Nashville, always values UT and the size of its fan base to sell tickets and feed the economy. That's especially true because of the tourism revenue Nashville lost when last year's Music City Bowl was canceled due to COVID-19.
The Vols played in the Music City Bowl in 2010 and 2016, so perhaps they're due for a return trip. As long as UT is in this tier of six bowls, it will be a prime suitor for the Music City Bowl.
Ticketsmarter Birmingham Bowl
Most bowl projections don't have an
SEC team sliding to the Birmingham Bowl on Dec. 28. There may not be enough bowl eligible teams remaining after the CFP, New Year's Six bowls and second-tier bowls make their selections.
But if the SEC pool is large — meaning Missouri, South Carolina, LSU and others get eligible — the Vols could be pushed to the bottom tier of tie-ins in a crowded field. So until the SEC pool is trimmed, the Birmingham Bowl is in play.
If UT beats Kentucky, take this bowl off the table as a likely destination. The Vols would be projected to go 7-5 and rise above this possibility.
What other bowls are in play?
Bowls avoid repeat participants and regular-season rematches, and other factors come into play in shuffling the deck of teams. That means any SEC team could go somewhere less predictable.
UT played in the Taxslayer Gator Bowl (Dec. 31, Jacksonville) two years ago, so that's least likely among the group of six bowls if past appearances are considered. The Vols also could go to the Outback Bowl (Jan. 1, Tampa), where they last played after the 2015 season, or the Texas Bowl (Jan. 4, Houston), where they've never played.
The SEC bowl picture will become clearer each week.
Reach Adam Sparks at adam.sparks@knoxnews.com and on Twitter @Adamsparks.