Texas A&M is challenge for Ole Miss
No. 11 Aggies are at peak for Saturday showdown
OXFORD — Ole Miss has to play Texas A&M just as the Aggies are becoming the team nobody wants to play.
The No. 12 Rebels (7-2, 3-2 SEC) host the No. 11 Aggies (7-2, 4-2) on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN). Texas A&M enters on a four-game winning streak, including a 41-38 win over No. 2 Alabama and wins over Missouri, South Carolina and No. 20 Auburn by a combined margin of 9931.
Few teams are playing better than Texas A&M. Ole Miss is hard to gauge given the injuries on offense and question marks about who is able to return.
Here are the Clarion Ledger’s scouting report and prediction for Saturday’s game.
Ole Miss offense vs. Texas A&M defense
Texas A&M plays all-around defense as well as anyone. Only four teams have allowed fewer rushing touchdowns and only 10 have allowed fewer passing touchdowns. The Aggies rank No. 6 in the FBS in punts forced and red zone touchdown percentage.
There isn’t a hole in the Texas A&M defense for Ole Miss to exploit. But the Rebels do have the element of mystery. It’s unknown how healthy quarterback Matt Corral will be or how many of his top three receivers will be available. But Corral looked healthier Saturday against Liberty, senior receiver Braylon Sanders is progressing toward being a significant piece in the game plan again and three backup receivers have had 100-yard days in the last two weeks.
Ole Miss has had 10 players run or catch for 100 yards in a game this season. No other SEC team has more than five. Ole Miss’ offense doesn’t have natural holes to exploit either.
If Ole Miss is healthier than it’s letting on, as is entirely possible knowing coach Lane Kiffin’s coyness, the Rebels could move the ball well. But even a fully healthy Ole Miss offense isn’t guaranteed to put up big numbers against Texas A&M. This is a fascinating matchup.
Ole Miss defense vs. Texas A&M offense
The other matchup will get the headlines. This one will decide the game.
Texas A&M didn’t score an offensive touchdown against Auburn. The Aggies are No. 10 in the SEC in total offense, No. 11 in scoring offense and No. 13 in passing offense, ahead of only Vanderbilt.
Things have progressed for the Aggies of late; they rank top five in the SEC in scoring offense during conference play. But things have also progressed for Ole Miss. The Rebels allowed 88 points over their last four games, the fewest in any four-game stretch since Kiffin took over.
Texas A&M’S win against Auburn was the first where quarterback Zach Calzada didn’t throw an interception since
taking over as starter. Ole Miss intercepted Liberty quarterback Malik Willis three times thanks in large part to pressure from a pass rush that logged nine sacks. But Texas A&M’S offensive line is one of the best in the country, having allowed 13 all year.
When Ole Miss’ defense is working, it’s because it’s generating pressure and has a strong secondary. When it’s not, it’s because teams run the ball easily. Texas A&M’S offense has rushed for 200 or more yards three games straight but has only broken 200 passing yards in one of six SEC games.
It’s an interesting situation where both team’s strengths align with the other team’s weakness. Whichever team’s weakness can outplay itself is likely the team that wins this game.
Prediction
Ole Miss 31, Texas A&M 27: I’ll be honest: This is the first game all year where I didn’t wake up Monday morning knowing exactly who was going to win. I’m 9-for-9 on picks this year because, like it or not, Ole Miss has been pretty predictable.
This one?
I don’t know. My instinct tells me Kiffin has a few tricks up his sleeve and some of the offensive issues against Liberty and Auburn are on their way to being solved. I like the Rebels at home in front of a full stadium in a close one, but I don’t feel good about it.
Contact Nick Suss at 601-408-2674 or nsuss@gannett.com. Follow @nicksuss on Twitter.