Alabama could make playoff with two losses
Win over No. 1 Georgia, however, is clearest path
Beating No. 1 Georgia in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday (3 p.m. CT, CBS) in Atlanta is Alabama’s cleanest path into the College Football Playoff.
If the Crimson Tide (11-1) upset the Bulldogs, it will be in the field. Alabama is ranked No. 2 in the USA TODAY Sports AFCA poll and No. 3 in the CFP rankings.
But I continue to think the door is cracked for Alabama to slip into the playoff with a narrow loss to Georgia. Such a path likely would require help in the form of upsets elsewhere.
Here’s how I view Alabama’s avenues into the playoff:
Alabama beats Georgia
Not only would Alabama be in the playoff with a win Saturday, it probably would surge to the No. 1 seed.
Michigan (11-1) is ranked No. 2 by the CFP and will play Iowa (10-2, No. 13 CFP) in the Big Ten Championship, but given how much the selection committee values Georgia, Alabama could expect to receive a bump for beating the Bulldogs. Combine that with Alabama’s robust strength of schedule, and a spot on the top line is the probable reward for a Saturday victory.
Alabama loses close to Georgia, combined with at least one upset
The first question that must be answered is: What qualifies as a close loss to Georgia, a team that has won 11 straight games by at least 17 points? Georgia is a 6.5-point favorite according to the Tipico Sportsbook, so let’s use that at as our guide and dub a close loss to be by a touchdown or less.
If Michigan wins the Big Ten, Cincinnati (No. 4 CFP) beats Houston to win the American and Oklahoma State (No. 5 CFP) beats Baylor to win the Big 12, Alabama’s playoff hopes likely are toast even with a close loss. In this scenario, the playoff field would be Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State.
But if Alabama’s close loss is combined by two members of the Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State trio losing in conference title games, the Crimson Tide probably can slip into the field of four.
What if only one member of that Michigan, Cincinnati and Oklahoma State trio loses, combined with Alabama losing in narrow fashion to Georgia?
Then the committee might have to decide between admitting Alabama or selecting Notre Dame (11-1, No. 6 CFP), which does not play in a conference championship Saturday as an independent.
The Irish are without coach Brian Kelly, who bolted this week for the LSU job despite his team being in playoff contention.
CFP selection committee chair Gary Barta said Tuesday the committee is allowed to consider Kelly’s exit and its potential effect on Notre Dame when making playoff selections.
In summary:
If Alabama loses close to Georgia, combined losses by two members of the Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State trio: I think Alabama is in the playoff.
If Alabama loses close to Georgia, combined with one member of the Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State trio losing: The committee likely would decide between two-loss Alabama and a one-loss Notre Dame team that also did not win a conference championship, does not have a coach and has no victories against teams currently ranked in the CFP top 25.
Alabama bias, or chaos ensues
What if Alabama loses, and it’s not particularly close? Say Georgia wins by at least two touchdowns.
To make the playoff then would require either blatant Bama bias from the selection committee or chaos to unfold elsewhere Saturday.
The committee routinely catches heat for its rankings, but I think it has done a fair job. Consider, the top nine in the rankings – Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Ole Miss and Baylor – are ranked in the same order they would be in the BCS rankings, according to a Bcsknowhow simulation. So, I rule out bias as a savior for the Tide.
Given this topsy-turvy season, though, I’m not ready to rule out chaos: Georgia thumps Alabama.
Iowa beats Michigan.
Houston beats Cincinnati.
Baylor beats Oklahoma State.
Then what?
Georgia would be in. Notre Dame would in. And …?
Probably, the committee would take two-loss Michigan and two-loss Alabama.
Or, just crown Georgia the champion. Blake Toppmeyer is an SEC Columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at Btoppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.