Heupel may catch break with schedule
One of the biggest reasons to have been optimistic about Tennessee football coach Josh Heupel's first season was the schedule.
You probably counted Florida, Alabama and Georgia as sure losses. You might have counted Kentucky and Ole Miss as likely losses. At least, that's what I did.
That analysis would have required the Vols to win six of their other seven games to qualify for a bowl. They did that and more, defeating nationally ranked Kentucky in Lexington for a 7-5 regular season and bowl eligibility with one game to spare.
Not only did UT better my 6-6 regular-season prediction, it did so against a more challenging schedule than I imagined.
Who could have predicted that South Carolina would qualify for a bowl in Shane Beamer's first season? I wasn't even sure it would beat Vanderbilt.
And who would have thought Pittsburgh would finish 11-3 and win the ACC championship? Or that five of Tennessee's opponents would win at least 10 games and finish in the top 15?
Since the 2021 schedule proved to be more demanding, I'm altering my schedule outlook ever so slightly for 2022. I originally thought it would be more difficult than Heupel's first Tennessee season. Now, I'm not so sure.
Replacing Army with Akron will help. Although I'm opposed to Power 5 programs running shamelessly from service-academy schools, the move should result in one more nonconference victory. My guess is the Vols couldn't handle Army's dreaded triple-option offense. Their defense just isn't that sound.
Handling whatever offense Akron concocts shouldn't be a concern for Tennessee or the rest of the MAC. The Zips lost 10 of 12 games last season and scored 17 or fewer points in six games.
Pittsburgh again will be UT'S most stringent nonconference test. But even though it's a road game for the Vols, it
likely won't prove as difficult as the 2021 matchup – mainly because the Panthers won't have Kenny Pickett at quarterback.
Pittsburgh has added Southern Cal transfer quarterback Kedon Slovis, a former five-star recruit. Slovis isn't as
polished as Pickett, who completed 24 of 36 passes for 285 yards and two touchdowns without a turnover against Tennessee.
Also, the Vols began the game with Joe Milton at quarterback. Once Heupel replaced him with Hendon Hooker, Tennessee's
offense perked up – though not enough to prevent a 41-34 loss to the Panthers.
In the rematch, UT will have Hooker at quarterback from the outset, and Pittsburgh won't have Pickett at all. That will make for a drastic shift in Tennessee's favor.
As for the SEC, you can't expect national champion Georgia to be as good. The Bulldogs lost too much defense. But they still will be superior to the rest of the division.
National championship runner-up Alabama could be even better. The Tide return Heisman Trophy quarterback Bryce Young, and the nation's best defensive player, Will Anderson. They also added three likely starters through the transfer portal, including All-america candidate Eli Ricks at cornerback.
Florida might be better than last season when it won only two SEC games. But it surely won't be as stout as it was in September when it beat Tennessee by 24 points and pushed Alabama to the brink before losing.
Vanderbilt could be slightly better. So might Missouri. Nonetheless, Tennessee should win both games by doubledigit margins.
Kentucky should field another winning team under coach Mark Stoops. But don't expect it to win 10 games again.
And don't expect it to beat Tennessee at Neyland-stadium. The Wildcats have won only one game there since 1984. Their 2020 victory comes with an asterisk: Jeremy Pruitt was Tennessee's coach.
If you have been following my schedule breakdown, you should have the Vols at 8-2.
That leaves road games against LSU and South Carolina. Both teams improved themselves significantly through the transfer portal.
But even if Tennessee would lose both games, it still could finish 8-4. That would give Heupel 15 regular-season victories in his first two seasons.
He would be the Vols' first coach to accomplish that since Phillip Fulmer won 16 regular-season games in 199394.
John Adams is a senior columnist. He may be reached at 865-342-6284 or john.adams@knoxnews.com. Follow him at: twitter.com/johnadamskns.