Could Shelby County see increase COVID-19 cases?
Local infectious disease expert says it’s unlikely
National news outlets have been persistent in reporting the U.S. is headed toward another surge in COVID-19 cases — this time fueled primarily by the BA.2 variant of omicron.
The headlines are mostly in relation to moderate increases in cases in the Northeastern part of the county, particularly in central New York.
Meanwhile, case counts in Shelby County have remained stable — the test positivity rate has remained under 5% since the week of Feb. 13, and the 7-day average of new cases has hovered in the 20s and 30s since early March, according to Shelby County Health Department data.
Dr. Manoj Jain, an infectious disease expert and a key advisor in the local pandemic response, remains optimistic for Shelby County, even omicron’s sublineage continues to produce new variants.
“We’re in a really good position, we’re not seeing any increases or surges unlike the Northeast, where there have been moderate rises,” Jain said.
The health department also confirmed their data shows no signs of an uptick.
The omicron variant known as BA.2 is in Shelby County and it is “well established,” Jain said. About a month ago, he said around 50% of positive COVID tests sequenced were found to be the BA.2 variant. He believes that percentage would be higher today.
That the omicron variant hasn’t driven up case numbers is likely helped by two things, Jain said: a significant amount of Shelby County residents contracted omicron during late 2021 and early 2022, and more than 570,000 residents are vaccinated.
“When we look at those two numbers together and adult antibody data, we have about 95% protection among adults,” Jain said.
“This really helps in allowing the surge not to happen.”
However, there is one caveat to consider when looking at flat infection rates in Shelby County — at-home rapid tests.
“Many people are doing home tests and rapid antigen tests, and those are not being reported as often as PCR tests that are run through the lab,” Jain said. Even still, he estimates the amount of unreported COVID-19 tests is low.
Hospitalizations, a lagging but highly reliable indicator of COVID-19 rates, also translate to optimism. Rooms once filled with COVID-19 patients are nearly empty and the latest hospital data from the health department show that just 2% of patients in both acute care and intensive care rooms are COVID-19 positive.
But, because the virus remains unpredictable, Jain encourages others to keep the pandemic response tools in mind, especially testing and booster shots for people who are older than 50 or immunocompromised.
“At various times, people become complacent or jaded,” Jain said. I just want folks to know that things can change, and we must be nimble both at a personal and at a public level.”