Scouting report, score prediction vs. UCF
UCF approached its first game against Memphis basketball as one that could potentially define its season.
The Knights may have gotten their wish — just not the way they had envisioned.
While UCF won that knockdown, drag-out affair 107-104 in double overtime, things went south quickly afterward. The Knights responded by losing five straight. If the first game defined UCF’S season, the Knights likely need another victory over the Tigers to save it.
Johnny Dawkins’ team (15-9, 6-6
AAC) will try to do just that Thursday (7 p.m., ESPN+) at Fedexforum.
Meanwhile, Memphis (19-6, 9-3) has not let that white-knuckle thriller in Orlando define its season. The Tigers have won seven of their last eight games, the only loss a one-point overtime defeat to Tulane. Memphis is currently tied for second place with the Green Wave in the league standings. Tulane holds the tiebreaker since it swept the season series.
Here are three things to keep an eye on ahead of Thursday’s contest:
How things have changed
Apart from the opposite directions both sides have gone since their Jan. 11 meeting, one of the most noticeable differences in the Tigers is at the 3-point line.
The Knights were 16-for-35 (45.7%) against Memphis. It is the most makes the Tigers have allowed this season and the most attempts. Through that game, Memphis was allowing teams to shoot 32.9% beyond the arc. Since then, Tiger opponents are hitting only 30.3% from 3-point land.
Things have changed on the offensive side as well. Memphis walked off the floor at UCF shooting a paltry 31.8% from deep. Since then, the Tigers are firing at 39.7%, thanks largely to Keonte Kennedy’s improvement. In his last
eight games, Kennedy has made 47.5% from behind the arc (19-for-40).
On the injury front, UCF played without starting point guard Darius Johnson in the first matchup. Johnson has played in the Knights’ last five games, averaging 11.8 points and 4.8 assists.
How things are the same
While Memphis has improved its perimeter production, the Knights have an even stronger 3-point presence. UCF connected on 36.5% of its threes through 17 games. Since then, the team is shooting 37.9% from the arc. The Knights are shooting 37.0% this season, good for No. 34 in the country.
On the flip side, UCF struggled with turnovers early this season, up to and including its game against Memphis, when it committed 18. The Knights’ ball security issues haven’t gone anywhere since, as they are coughing it up 13.3 times on average over the past seven games. UCF ranks 296th in the country in turnover rate.
The race for a first-round bye
No. 2 Houston currently sits atop the AAC standings with an 11-1 league record. If the season ended today, Tulane would be the second seed at the AAC Tournament — which will be held at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth from March 9-12 — and Memphis would be the 3.
The top five seeds get a first-round bye. While the Tigers (and others) still have designs on surpassing Houston for the AAC title, securing a first-round bye is well within reach.
Memphis is three games ahead of sixth-place UCF in the standings and 31⁄2 games in front of seventh-place Wichita State. The Tigers have six regular-season games remaining. If they beat UCF and Wichita State loses to Temple Thursday, they could assure themselves a first-round bye with one more win, one more UCF loss and one more Wichita State loss.
Memphis vs. UCF score prediction
Memphis 83, UCF 79: The Tigers aren’t letting this one slip away.
Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or on Twitter @munzly.