Predictions for Memphis at the AAC tourney
Memphis basketball has defied expectation seemingly at every turn during this topsy-turvy, altogether confounding season.
National college basketball reporter Pat Forde labeled the Tigers (22-9, 11-7 AAC) as one of the most “random” teams in the country. Some have said Penny Hardaway’s team has the talent and ability to make a second-weekend NCAA tournament run, while also being capable of losing in the first round of this week’s AAC tournament.
With that in mind, let’s get bold and make a few predictions about the Tigers’ immediate future.
Memphis basketball will make it to Sunday
Because that’s just how the past two months of this season have gone.
When you think the Tigers will be up, they’re down. And vice versa. So it only makes sense that whatever Memphis does this week, it won’t make any sense.
As wholly unpredictable as this team has been, the stakes are plain as day. It’s win or go home — for good, most likely. The Tigers know what’s in front of them. If they get past Wichita State or Rice, they face UAB on Friday (2 p.m., ESPN2) and either South Florida, Tulsa or East Carolina in the semifinals on Saturday.
FAU will not make it to Sunday
The Owls are simply a different team when they’re not at home.
When Dusty May’s team laces ‘em up at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, it is 12-1 this season, best in the AAC. When it has to play games anywhere else, it is 11-6. Broken down, that’s 6-1 on a neutral floor and 5-5 in true road games. The Owls’ .500 road record includes four losses to AAC opponents.
Among FAU’S five road victories in conference play, two came in overtime (UTSA and Wichita State), while two others (Tulane and North Texas) were by one and four points, respectively. Tulane and North Texas also happen to represent the Owls’ slimmest margins
of victory (six and three points, respectively) in home AAC games this season.
FAU’S first game at the AAC tournament will be against either Tulane or North Texas. If it gets to the semifinals, it likely will see SMU there.
Who will be the Tigers’ unlikely stalwart?
Relying on your three-headed monster to carry you through four games in four days is a far-fetched proposition.
Which means Memphis will need someone else to take some pressure off David Jones, Nae’qwan Tomlin and Jahvon Quinerly if it is going to score the automatic NCAA tournament bid. Who will that be?
The two most likely candidates are Jaykwon Walton and Nicholas Jourdain. When he’s on, Jayden Hardaway is capable of giving the Tigers an offensive boost. Jayhlon Young has shown (although not lately) the ability to be a difference maker on defense. Joe Cooper can help.
Maybe it won’t be just one player who steps up to be the ultimate supporting act for the Tigers’ big three. Maybe it will be a rotating cast — Walton one game, Jourdain the next and Hardaway following them.
It’s tempting to go with Jones here because he’s the league’s leading scorer and all. It’s also tempting to pick Quinerly. After all, he was named MVP of the SEC tournament three years ago when he was at Alabama.
But if the Tigers go all the way, it will be Tomlin taking home the honor. He has been the most consistent player on the team the past three weeks, and he does it all. He can score at all three levels. He rebounds, blocks shots, plays above-average defense (when he’s not in foul trouble) and is the team’s emotional leader.
Will Memphis win the AAC tournament?
The Tigers almost certainly will be favored in their first three games. As covered earlier, the thought here is they will make good on those odds.
But so much of what happens in a tournament setting comes down to matchups. And there are multiple teams on the opposite side of the bracket that are not great matchups for Memphis, even on fresh legs. FAU, SMU and even North Texas immediately come to mind.
At this stage, it’s just a bridge too far to peg the Tigers as the favorites.
Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.