La Niña chances grow more certain for this year
Climate troublemaker La Ninã isn’t here yet but is on its way, federal weather forecasters said in a report released Thursday.
In fact, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration gave the climate pattern as much as an 85% chance of forming by late fall.
“We are very confident that La Ninã will form by this fall,” Nat Johnson, a NOAA meteorologist, told USA TODAY.
Once it forms, it’s also supposed to last through next winter and will thus affect U.S. weather throughout the coldest months.
Of more immediate concern is that there’s a 69% chance it will develop by the summer months (July-september), NOAA said. This is key because a full-fledged La Ninã could worsen the severity of the Atlantic hurricane season, the heart of which is typically in September.
La Ninã is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Ninã is declared.
Surprisingly, that small amount is enough to affect weather and climate patterns in the U.S. and around the world.
The cycle between La Ninã and its “sibling” El Ninõ is hugely important for agriculture worldwide. El Ninõ generally brings wetter conditions to the Americas, while a La Ninã has the opposite effect.
El Ninõ is technically still in effect but is fading fast, soon to be replaced by what’s known as “Enso-neutral” conditions, which is an intermediate stage between La Ninã and El Ninõ . NOAA’S forecast “favors an imminent transition to Enso-neutral conditions, with La Niña developing during July-september 2024 and then persisting through the Northern Hemisphere winter.”
The entire natural climate cycle is officially known by climate scientists as ENSO, which stands for “El Ninõ – Southern Oscillation,” a seesaw dance of warmer and cooler seawater in the central Pacific Ocean.
“Actually, this transition appears to be occurring rather quickly,” Johnson told USA TODAY. “We are unlikely to experience many seasons of Enso-neutral conditions before the onset of La Ninã , whereas on some other occasions we may experience more than a year before transitioning to La Ninã .”
“The strength of the El Ninõ is likely a major factor for why this transition is fast,” he added. “It’s not unusual for strong El Ninõ s to transition quickly to La Ninã , as the discharge of heat away from the tropical Pacific tends to be more dramatic following a strong El Ninõ .”
A typical La Ninã winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to NOAA’S Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and Mid-atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Ninã winter.