Wall Street holds steadier after last week’s bumpy ride

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stocks are holding steadier Monday after a roller-coaster end to last week left them a bit shy of their records.

The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged in early trading, coming off a stretch where a 1.2% drop immediately flipped to a 1.1% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 51 points, or 0.1%, as of 9:35 a.m.

Eastern time, and the Nasdaq composite was basically flat.

Much of the focus has been on interest rates and when the Federal Reserve will lower them to ease pressure on the economy and financial system. A string of reports showing both inflation and the economy have remained hotter than expected has forced Wall Street to delay forecasts for when relief on rates could arrive.

This upcoming week has several flashpoints that could further swing expectations. On Wednesday will come the latest monthly update on the inflation that U.S. consumers are feeling. Later in the week will be reports on inflation at the wholesale level and expectations for upcoming inflation among U.S. households.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said recently he still expects cuts to interest rates this year, but the central bank first needs additional confirmation inflation is heading toward its target of 2%. The Fed has been holding its main interest rate at the highest level in more than two decades, hoping to grind down enough on the economy and prices for investments to get inflation under control. The risk of holding rates too high for too long is it could cause a recession.

But some Fed officials have also raised the possibility of rates staying high for longer if inflation remains stubbornly high. That has pushed some traders on Wall Street to cut back expectations for how many cuts to rates may arrive this year to two from three. They had already drastically pulled back their forecasts from the start of this year, when many were expecting six cuts or more.

Traders now see roughly a coin flip’s chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at its meeting in June, down from a better than 70% probability a month ago, according to data from CME Group. The fear is that if the Fed waits too long before cutting rates, it will have to wait until after November’s presidential election out of fear of appearing political, even if the Fed’s Powell said last week that it has the independence to make decisions “without consideration of short-term political matters.”