Assessing the Democratic field for governor
Last week’s column looked at the potential field of Republican candidates in the race to succeed Dannel P. Malloy as governor. Malloy announced April 13 that he would not seek a third term. Now it’s time to look at the Democrats.
As noted in that prior column, Republicans have the advantage of dealing with an electorate that will be trending toward change. Democrats are the establishment, controlling the governorship and both houses of the legislature since 2011.
It has been a tough few years. The post-recession recovery has been among the most sluggish in the nation. Fiscal problems persist, caused in large measure by the state’s deep debt and pension obligations that outstrip the state’s resources.
So whoever is the Republican candidate can make the case that a Democrat does not deserve a third term in office, even if his or her name is not Malloy.
But it’s not all bad news for the Democrats. They have President Trump.
Just as opposition to President Obama begat the tea party movement and energized conservative voters, opposition to Trump has invigorated the left and could lead to greater turnout for Democrats in a non-presidential year in 2018.
In next year’s gubernatorial election much of the fire will be aimed at two candidates not on the ballot, with the Republicans trying to link the Democratic nominee to Malloy and the Democrats working to equate the Republican candidate with Trump.
As on the Republican side, the race starts with no clear frontrunner for the Democrats.
Three Democrats have formed exploratory committees, most recently Chris Mattei (pronounced Matty). A former federal prosecutor, he was on the team that sent former Republican Gov. John G. Rowland back to prison for clandestinely receiving payments for guiding a congressional campaign.
Mattei, 38, has little name recognition, but the fact he is not part of the Democratic establishment could prove an asset.
Also announced is Jonathan Harris, 53, a former West Hartford mayor, state senator, most recently the commissioner of consumer protection, and past executive director of the state Democratic Party. He is the definition of a party insider. His connections, however, will be an asset in organizing and raising the large number of small, grassroots donations necessary to tap public campaign financing.
Middletown Mayor Dan Drew, 37, announced his gubernatorial intentions back in January. He’s a dark horse, but dark horses did well in 2016 nationally.
More interesting, perhaps, is who might run. Comptroller Kevin P. Lembo will almost certainly be a candidate, having previously told The Day Editorial Board he would likely run even if it had meant challenging Malloy for the party nomination.
As comptroller, Lembo has built a reputation as a fiscal pragmatist serious about fixing the state’s budget problems. But can he effectively translate that message to voters?
In other circumstances, Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman would be the heir apparent. Instead, her close association with Malloy and his low approval numbers may rule her out as a viable candidate.
Speculation also revolves around a potential gubernatorial run by Attorney General George Jepsen. However, compare his name recognition with that of his predecessor, now Sen. Richard Blumenthal. Never mind, there is no comparison. Jepsen is, in a word, dull.
Finally, there is freshman state Sen. Ted Kennedy Jr. That family name could prove a benefit in a Democratic primary, a curse in the general election, if the senator decides to run.
In my 30 years of reporting on Connecticut news for The Day, this is starting as the most wide open race for governor. And it’s starting early.