VEHICLE SIZE
Improvements to vehicle safety features in recent years include several systems designed to avoid crashes, and this technology has also reduced the likelihood of a driver being involved in a fatal crash. But traffic deaths still occur due to recklessness and human error.
According to two recent studies published in the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety's "Status Report," fatal crashes are also more likely to occur as a result of certain other factors. The rate of traffic deaths is higher in small vehicles as well as during summer, early autumn, and periods of lower unemployment, when traffic volume is higher.
IIHS says that the driver death rate is more likely to be higher in small vehicles than in larger ones. Of the 10 models with the highest fatality rates, five were classified as minicars and three were small cars.
Among vehicles between the model years of 2011 and 2014, four-door minicars had the highest fatality rate. Eighty-seven driver deaths were recorded for every 1 million registered vehicle years of this type of vehicle; this type of vehicle also had the highest fatality rate for multiple vehicle crashes at 59. Large four-wheel drive luxury SUVs had the lowest fatality rate at six deaths per 1 million registered vehicle years.
Among all cars, the fatality rate was 39 deaths per 1 million registered vehicle years. The rate was 26 for pickup trucks, 21 for SUVs, and 19 for minivans.
Vehicle size didn't always equate to greater safety, however. Large two-two cars had the second highest fatality rate at 80 deaths per 1 million registered vehicle years. It also had the highest fatality rate for single vehicle crashes at 34 and single vehicle rollovers at 15.
Large vehicles had higher fatality rates than their smaller counterparts in the luxury car segment, as did four-wheel drive and two-wheel drive pickups. While large four-wheel drive luxury SUVs had the lowest overall fatality rate, very large vehicles had the highest fatality rate in this segment at 18 per 1 million registered vehicle years. Very large standard four-wheel drive SUVs had the highest fatality rate in their segment at 30, while very large two-wheel drive SUVs had the lowest in their segment at 16.
Eleven vehicle models had no driver deaths recorded during the study period. These included two models each from Audi, BMW, and Lexus as well as one vehicle each from Jeep, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz, Toyota, and Volkswagen.
IIHS has been analyzing the rate of driver deaths in fatal crashes by make and model since 1989. Researchers collect this information from the federal Fatality Analysis Reporting System as well as the analytics company IHS Automotive. jumped 7 percent between 2014 and 2015. Preliminary data shows that traffic deaths also increased in 2016.
Charles Farmer, IIHS vice president for research and statistical services, designed a statistical model to look at connections between unemployment and fatal crashes. He determined that a reduction in unemployment from 6 percent to 5 percent resulted in a 2 percent increase in both vehicle miles traveled and traffic deaths, but that increased driving accounted for only half of the effect of a better economy on driver fatalities.
Farmer's model predicts that there will be 34,400 driver deaths in the U.S. in 2024 if the Bureau of Labor Statistics' forecast of a 1.7 percent drop in unemployment by that year holds true. This would be only a slight reduction from the 35,092 deaths in 2015 and up from 32,744 deaths in 2014.
Automakers, technology companies, and others are currently working on self-driving vehicle systems, which could help to eliminate crashes caused by driver error and reduce traffic deaths. However, these systems are still in development and it would take several years before a significant share of vehicles on the road became automated.
"Improvements in vehicle technology are important, but we also need to address old problems such as speeding and driving while impaired," said Farmer.