Congress’ official tax analyst sees 2027 tax boosts for many

Washington — The Republican tax bill would mean average initial tax cuts for Americans across all income lines, but by 2027, it would boost average levies for everyone earning up to $75,000, which includes most taxpayers, Congress’ nonpartisan tax analyst estimated Monday.

The projection seemed unlikely to have any impact on the fate of the legislation, which was expected to win House approval today. Senate passage was likely by Wednesday as the GOP races to send President Donald Trump his first major legislative victory before Christmas.

The Joint Committee on Taxation calculated that in 2019, people earning $20,000 to $50,000 would see tax cuts averaging 10 percent or more. Those making $200,000 to $1 million would see reductions averaging slightly less.

But by 2023, people making under $30,000 would see tax increases while those earning more would see their tax cuts get smaller.

That pattern would continue. In 2027, a year after most individual tax provisions expire, people making up to $75,000 would be paying more on average than under current law. The committee says around 118 million of the 177 million tax returns are from households making up to $75,000.

Republicans ended the individual tax cuts in 2026 to conform to Senate rules that require the measure to limit the federal debt increases it would cause. The bill is projected to boost federal shortfalls by nearly $1.5 trillion over the coming decade.

GOP lawmakers say they’d expect a future Congress to continue the tax cuts so they won’t expire. If achieved, that would drive up deficits even further.