Expert: Chances for U.S.-N. Korea talks hard to predict

In Old Lyme talk, he cites need for flexibility

“Either one of us have to give or we both have to give a little bit at the same time to get to the point where we’re willing to have that conversation.”

JAMES SCHOFF, SENIOR FELLOW CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE

Old Lyme — Whether recent efforts by North and South Korea to improve relations could lead to a more productive atmosphere for negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea will depend on “how flexible the Trump administration is willing to be” on the starting point for those talks, an expert on U.S-Asia relations told a crowd Thursday night at Lyme-Old Lyme High School.

There seems to be disagreement among administration officials on how to handle North Korea, as was observed when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson offered to sit down with the North Koreans “without precondition.” The White House later clarified that it was open to the possibility of a dialogue with nuclear-armed North Korea “with the aim of denuclearizing the Korean peninsula.”

“North Korea is not willing to have that conversation under those parameters,” said James Schoff, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who specializes in Japan, the Korean Peninsula and U.S. policy in the region.

“Either one of us have to give or we both have to give a little bit at the same time to get to the point where we’re willing to have that conversation,” Schoff continued. “... I don’t see an avenue right now, based on

what I know of Washington’s thinking and there’s no evidence from the North Korean side, that either of them are willing to take that extra step to get closer together.”

Schoff was speaking as part of an event put on by the Southeast Connecticut World Affairs Council on U.S.-North Korea relations and the challenges and options going forward.

After high-level negotiations between representatives from North and South Korea on Tuesday, North Korea agreed to send a delegation to the Olympics being held in Seoul next month and to open military hotlines that had been closed for several years.

On Wednesday, President Donald Trump, speaking by phone with South Korea President Moon Jae-In, expressed his willingness to hold talks between U.S. and North Korea “at the appropriate time, under the right circumstances,” according to a White House readout of the call. Trump reportedly told the Wall Street Journal in an interview on Thursday that he “probably” has a very good relationship with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un, despite recent saber rattling between the two leaders.

Schoff said Thursday night that under the Trump administration, support has increased for greater military pressure against North Korea, in large part because of the rapid progression of North Korea’s missile program in 2017. But reaching consensus with South Korea, or even within the U.S. government, on what actions by the North Koreans would trigger a military response or preventive strike is incredibly difficult, he added.

For now, “We don’t want to be too belligerent or aggressive or dismissive while our ally is trying to pursue this course,” Schoff said of South Korea. “Right now, we’re saying and doing the right things in terms of alliance management.”

However, he remains skeptical that efforts to improve inter-Korean relations will lead to anything more productive.